Style Points

First, I have been sick all week with the Flu, and so I have not been as active researching on here as I would like to be.  I apologize to all my adoring fans.  Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, I feel the need to ATTEMPT and quell the anger that ensued in my inbox box from Nova friends after the [choose your own adjective] that occurred in the great shitty state of New Jersey on Wednesday, although I don’t think I can.  Third, if you haven’t noticed, I created an additional page on the site that shows the differential graphs from all of our games.  Check them out.

I have some answers, I think.  Well, maybe just some rationale which you can take or leave.  But here it is.  The most defining characteristic both offensively and defensively for THIS team – unlike other Nova teams – is the number of 3 pt. shot attempts.  Although, you could argue that it has always defined us, but I am rambling now.  Question:  What the f%@*) are you talking about?

Answer:  A lot of times you will hear statements such as:  “Nova lives and dies by the 3.”  And or some silly announcers or commentators will highlight our 3 pt. shooting as the key to the game or as a focus of their broadcast.  Laziness pure and simple, because this could never be more inaccurate.  On the season, we have attempted 31% of our total shot attempts from 3.  Which ranks us 211^th (according to kenpom) in the country.  This style of passing up on 3’s is the lynch pin in understanding our team offensively.  You can see the effects trickle into other statistical categories.  Listed below is a retrospective look at how we compare stylistically with past Nova teams.

	3PA/FGA		A/FGM		FTA/FGA
2011	31.4		58.9		44.1
2010	34.5		49.9		43.9
2009	32		55.8		41.9
2008	34.9		53.7		38.9
2007	39.1		54.5		41.7
2006	39.6		49.8		36.9
2005	34		48.1		37.6
2004	36.6		57.5		39.1

We take fewer 3’s than any Nova team since 04.  Only in 09 did we depend almost as less on the 3 for our offense.  So if you pass on 3’s that means you are getting penetration.  We can see that in our A/FGM rate and also in our FTrate.  FTrate is the best in this time frame and so is our A/FGM.  Translation: we are a pretty damn efficient offense, and an offense that is consistent.  Because we have and have consistently had a high FT% getting to the line will result in consistent points.  Additionally, by NOT relying on our outside shooting we can easily avoid shooting slumps that can cause us to loose (well sort of so long as Stokes doesn’t go 1-11 or some shit – hey Corey, remember feet set, stationary shots, shhh don’t tell anybody).  Currently, we are ranked 11^th nationally in offensive efficiency, and also we have had an ORtg over 100 in every game but 3 (all losses – Tenn, UCONN, Providence).  Even in those games we had a rating in the 90’s, not good but you can win games with ratings in the 90’s if you have a solid defense.  We have also had 9 games where we had an ORtg above 120 this season, losing once to RU.  Loosing with an ORtg of above 120 to RU is crazy, absolutely crazy.

So what about defense?  Here is the lists’ including our opponents 3FG%, which I thought was interesting.

	3PA/FGA		A/FGM		FTA/FGA		3FG%
2011	35.5		59.4		33.6		30.0
2010	38.5		58.8		49.1		33.6
2009	41.2		61.2		38.8		33.6
2008	40.9		57.6		46.4		36.5
2007	40.2		56.0		42.0		35.2
2006	31.2		60.1		37.4		33.7
2005	33.5		60.4		38.6		31.8
2004	33.3		56.3		40.9		32.8

So our opponents don’t take many 3’s against us either, we don’t put them on the line, and they assist on a decent amount of buckets.  The Assist stat is a little misleading here.  In my opinion you want the opponent to have a high assist to FG rate, and if you look at the 3 highest over this time span you will find our 3 best defensive teams – 09, 06, 05.  Each of those teams could defend every position individually so you needed good efficient offensive sets and team work to create a bucket.  I think the most telling stat is defensively our FTrate.  Look how low that is!  Maybe we are soft and we do not challenge at the rim?  Maybe we just play very good defense and don’t foul.  I think it reflects a lack of grit and toughness inside.  Overall, a low FTA/FGA defensively is never a terrible thing, but I think we could handle fouling a little bit more especially with our depth.  All in all the numbers suggest we are a better defensive team then what we see on TV.  What gives?

Rationale:  Here is my take away and final conclusion, and for the first time I am putting forth a HIGHLY SUBJECTIVE explanation.  Take it or leave it.

Because offensively we do not attempt as many 3’s we have developed a consistent efficient offense.  However, this offense is not a quick strike offense, nor an offense that can in a matter of minutes put up a 12 or 15 point run.  If you take a look at many of the differential graphs, shameless plug, you can see that we simply play more efficiently than our opponents and only rarely do we throw in a slow methodical 10 point run.  So even though we are a solid offensive team, do we strike any fear into the other team?  Do we score so easily and quickly that we force the other team to take bad shots?  I think because we get fouled so often (FTrate) the attitude from the other team is that they simply bailed us out.  They got a call, or a lucky break.  Finally, I have seen myself and also read on other blogs about the seemingly ‘bored’ fans at games.  I don’t know about you but isn’t the loudest part of the game after a big time 3 was hit to either tie a game, start a comeback, or put the nail in the coffin.  We don’t have as many of those moments in our games.  Our offense consists of getting to the line.  I don’t scream every time Wayns hits a FT, but maybe we should.  (Still no excuse for the fans to be so out of it at games)

All of this translates then into our defensive numbers.  Defensively, we have a bad tendency which my father always talks about and very much dislikes.  In our half court defense we try to defend the Entire half court, far outside the 3 pt. line.  This results in few 3 point attempts by our opponents, but they can penetrate and dish and get easier buckets.  We have already discussed a lot this year about our inability to keep our opponents in front of us.  This is why we have actually used the 2-3 zone, and why we have seen Armwood enter the starting line-up.  We can’t stop penetration by teams with any type of quick PG.  And we don’t scare teams offensively enough to force them into bad possessions on the other end.  And we give up easier buckets than we should off of their penetration.  The final nail in the coffin is our paltry TO% on defense which is 18.8%.  That puts us at 261^st.  Yuck.  This again stops us from making any extended runs, and allows our opponents to have more possessions. 

In conclusion, maybe, just maybe we actually need to live and die by the 3 a little more.  Cheek I don’t mean you, son.