Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Let’s Review Part II: The 2012-2013 Villanova Season In Retrospect

Associated Press

In Part I, we saw our hero (the Villanova basketball program) stumble out of the gates to a relatively disappointing 9-4 start to the season.  With the debacle that was the 2012 season still on everyone’s minds, the final Big East regular season was about to begin and no one really knew what was ultimately going to happen.











THE LAST HURRAH

St. John’s (W)

Just like in his first game at the Pavilion, Ryan Arcidiacono brought the noise.  He finished with 32 points including a 7-13 effort from 3.  While JVP dropped 26 on 9-13 from the free throw line.  In case you really have missed this season, Villanova has the best FTrate in the country.  This is largely because JVP gets fouled on almost every single shot attempt, and we are absolutely the best team in the nation at pump faking.  The game did go to OT, but a win is a win, especially at this point.

@USF (W)

And then it happened.  Freshmen big man Ochefu replaced Senior Mo Sutton in the starting lineup.  Since this time, Sutton has barely seen the light of day, and he has played only 10% of the available minutes in Big East play, while Ochefu plays 46%.  The swapping of Ochefu and Sutton’s minutes is probably the key to the entire season.  Maybe Jay was looking ahead to next year when both Yarou and Sutton will be gone, or maybe he was simply waiting for Ochefu to understand the basic offensive and defensive principles better.  Either way, since the change was made we have been a completely different team on the defensive end.  Sure, everyone has improved and our rotations are much crisper but Ochefu’s presence simply makes everyone else’s job easier.

With Ochefu getting more minutes we have held opponents to 41.6% shooting from 2 during Big East play, the 2nd best mark in the conference.  But the often overlooked aspect of Ochefu’s game is his ability to get steals as well.  On the season he ranks second on the team in stl% at 2.7, and his increased minutes has helped us accumulate the 3rd best conference mark for creating turnovers on defense. 

@Syracuse (L), Pitt (L), and @Providence (L)

After winning 7 games in a row and our first two big east games, it seemed as if everyone had some quiet excitement about this team.  We got out to a 2 point lead at half, but Syracuse pulled away in the 2nd and won by 11.  It was a classic strong first half showing coupled with a second half meltdown, where you could tell it just hadn’t quite clicked for us.

In our next game, Pitt just beat the crap out of us.  We collected only 1 offensive rebound off of 30 missed shots.  That’s literally insane.  I think for this reason alone, I may or may not have made a bet with someone saying that Pitt will make the Elite 8.  They scare me and since it’s Pitt so does that bet.

We then traveled to Providence where it always seems like we lose.  Turnovers killed us, as we coughed it up on over 30% of our possessions.  But while we held them to only 40% shooting from 2 and 14% shooting from 3, we allowed them to rebound over 40% of their misses – granted they are the 29th best team in the country at that.

THE BEST WEEK IN A LONG, LONG TIME

Louisville (W)

Before the Louisville game, we had a record of 11-7 overall with a 2-3 mark in the Big East.  Our last win against a top-5 team probably happened when W was still President.  But everything kind of fell into place against Louisville, and we held Russ Smith to just 8 points on 2-13 shooting.  There was no stand out statistic; it was simply a well rounded, complete game where we came up with key plays when in the past we have fallen apart.

Syracuse (W)

I don’t know about you, but I just can’t stand Syracuse anymore.  I used to like Boeheim, and I disliked Calhoun.  Then I realized that Syracuse produces easily hated players like: Erick Devendorf, Scoop Jardine, and Rick Jackson; while UCONN produces a lot of guys who are likable: Rudy Gay, Kemba Walker, Jeremy Lamb, or my personal favorite growing up Khalid El-Amin.  In any event I’m now in the Calhoun camp and in the anti-Boeheim camp, even though Calhoun is now gone.  Throw in the whole realignment mess and Syracuse’s role in it, and I cant remember a regular season game I have been happier to win.  It felt absolutely fantastic, and totally validated our victory against Louisville at the same time.

While Arcidiacono hit the game tying 3 to send us into overtime, I would be remiss if I didn’t take a second to acknowledge the work of someone who I have been pretty hard on.  Stand up and take your bow Mr. Hilliard.  He finished with a game high 25 points on 5-5 shooting from 2, 3-6 from deep, 7 rebounds, 6 assists, and 0 turnovers. (clap, clap, clap).

THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD

@ND (L), Providence (L), @DePaul (W), USF (W), @Cincinnati (L)

After two court storming worthy efforts, Villanova was staring at the meat of our schedule.  A stretch of 5 games that all seemed winnable, but were stuck right in the middle of the grueling Big East regular season.  It’s the time of year when Conference play is beating you up, the season could go either way, and the finish line seems an eternity away.

A loss at Notre Dame is nothing to be ashamed of, but it still would have been a good game to have.  A 2nd loss to Providence on the other hand really hurts in retrospect.  We even turned the tables on them in the rebounding department as Providence only brought down 29% of their misses while we grabbed 40% of ours.  However, our little 3 point defense problem reared its ugly head again, as Providence went 10-15 from deep and won by 3. Oh irony.

After taking care of business on the road against DePaul and at home against USF, it was time once again to face a top tier team in Cincinnati.  And we feel flat on our face, surrendering yet another remarkable effort from 3 by the opposing team, as Cincinnati made 12 of their 25 3 pointers in a rout.  Seems like a trend to me.

THE REBOUND

The loss to Cincinnati put us at 16-10 overall and 7-6 in Big East play.  The idea of us making the tournament was there, but our up and down season so far left it really in doubt.

@UCONN (W), Rutgers (W)

The win at UCONN and the lack of a let down against Rutgers meant that our tournament hopes actually held water.  Arcidiacono led the way with 25 points, while JVP did his usual JVP things, putting up 14 points and 7 offensive rebounds.  We rebounded over 50% of our misses against UCONN, which still seems weird to write on paper.  While not a great team this season, UCONN is still pretty good and a road win with one of weirdest and craziest fanbases is good enough for me.

Marquette (W)

While most people will point to the Louisville and Syracuse games as the signature victories of the season, it’s this win that really turned the season downhill in the direction we are currently in.  For one, the pressure was on, as everyone knew that we pretty much needed this game if we were going to go dancing; and because of our earlier wins there was no way Marquette was taking us for granted.  We executed our game plan to perfection, and played about as clean of a game as is possible for this team, turning over the ball on only 15% of our possessions. 

But most of all, the characteristic that has defined this team showed through: we just flat out, outworked them.  We forced turnovers on just shy of 30% of their possessions, and we lifted our season average on winning 50/50 balls to 73.2% - that’s not a real stat, but Arcidiacono leads the country in diving after loose balls and is literally on the ground for 35% of our possessions. Ok, that’s not a real stat either.

REMEMBER WE ARE A BUBBLE TEAM FOR A REASON

@Seton Hall (L), @Pitt (L), Georgetown (W)

A lot of people were upset about our loss at Seton Hall, and I think Joe Lunardi even knocked us out of the bracket for a whole 27 minutes before putting us back in – they do those stupid bracket updates too frequently.  But people forget the reason we are a bubble team and not a 4 seed is because of these silly losses.  They happen because we are not a finished product.  Remember our little defensive problem from earlier?  Yeah still there, as the Hall shot 13-21 from 3. 

I’m not ready to talk about the Pitt game yet.  I just can't.  We had that game, and Pitt is right up there with Syracuse on my “Hate” list.

We will never know if we really had to win against Georgetown to get into the tournament.  Most people will say yes, but I’m not so sure.  In any event, we did beat Georgetown, holding the unanimous Big East player of the Year Otto Porter to 6 for 16 shooting.  But the real story was the turnovers we caused on defense, forcing G’Town to cough it up on 35% of their possessions.

WE ARE BETTER THAN WE THOUGHT WE WERE

Anyone who tells you that they knew/thought we would make the tournament at the beginning of the season, is a person you should cut out of your life.  That person cannot be trusted.  So, yeah we have greatly exceeded expectations, but the best part is how we did it.  We have gotten better every week, and we are one scrappy team.  Jay has gone from on his way to getting run out of town, to maybe his best coaching job since he developed Foye et al.

The final ‘real’ Big East tourney awaits, and in all likelihood so does the NCAA Tournament.  That just sounds good to say, doesn’t?

Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Let’s Review: The 2012-2013 Villanova Season in Retrospect, Part I

(AP Photo/Matt Slocum)
The regular season is finally over.  Now all that is left is the Big East Tourney, and then if all goes to plan the Big Dance.  But first, I think we should take a look back and see how we got here. For those of you who haven’t been paying attention, this is your chance to get caught up.


  



 THE PREAMBLE

16 October 2012

The Big East media conducts its worthless pre-season poll.  Villanova is picked to finish 12th with only Providence, Seton Hall, and DePaul picked to finish worse.  Frankly, I can’t find too much fault looking back on it; well maybe a little.  In any event, the message was: “Everyone was so disappointed in Wayns and Cheek that we all collectively forgot that Jay is one of only 4 coaches in this conference with a Final Four.  And now we don’t think he can coach or recruit anymore, so we are going to pick you to finish behind Rutgers.”

27 October 2012

HOOPS MANIA! I only have memories of 2 Hoops Mania’s from my time at school, my sophomore (’04) and senior (’06) years.  Maybe I went to the other two and don’t remember them, a strong possibility.  All I do remember was that the event was largely set up to introduce the incoming big recruits to the Villanova fans.  And Dylan Ennis did not disappoint.  Wait, he’s not playing this year? Crap maybe we will finish 12th.

8 November 2012

I bet most of you don’t remember this.  Ty Johnson decides to transfer after only 1 season.  If you are counting at home we now have lost 4 players from last year’s team.  Wayns and Cheek left early, while Kennedy transferred to go play at SMU under Larry Brown, who probably won't be there next judging by his track record.  Ty Johnson’s one year included 23% shooting from 3, 65 assists, and 58 turnovers.  We call this addition by subtraction.

INTRODUCTIONS

Marshall (W)

In our first real game of the season, Villanova threw up an 80 spot with freshman Ryan Arcidiacono going 4-9 from deep and 9-10 from the line in route to a game high 25 points.  For reference, Ochefu only played 6 minutes, and JVP had only 6 points after going 6-14 from the free throw line.  What?  But in retrospect this game highlighted our season long, and continuing, fight with our opponents 3 point shooting.  Marshall was 12-27 from 3 on the day (44%).

Purdue (W)

Villanova traveled to the Garden to take on Purdue in the 2K Sports Classic.  After being up 35-29 at half, Purdue took control mid-way through the second stanza.  With under a minute to play they were up 4 (75-71) with :43 seconds left. Then this happened: Flagrant I, 2 shots and the ball.  We end up tying it up and went on to score 14 points in OT to take the win.  Crazy.  Hilliard led all scorers with 22, and no one is sure if Yarou is even alive at this point, as he put up a measly 4 points.  All in all things aren’t going too bad so far.

Alabama (L), Columbia (L), @La Salle (L)

And just like that 12th place in Big East seems awfully generous of the media members.  Our next game in the 2K Sports Classic saw Alabama just kick the shit out of us.  They shot over 50% from 2 and over 60% from 3.  That would have been fine, if it wasn’t for the fact that just four days later Columbia came into the Pavilion and beat us by 18.  Hilliard and Arcidiacono were a combined 5-21 from the field.  Columbia would go on to finish just 4-10 in the Ivy League this year.  Five days later, we lost in OT to La Salle (who is a bubble team).  Arcidiacono threw up only 6 points in 41 minutes, and looked like he had just run a marathon as he was playing 92% of the minutes on the season thus far.  Hilliard had only 7 points in 34 minutes, but JVP put up 19 and Yarou had 20.

At this point, I’ll paraphrase an actual conversation.

Me: “So how many games do you think we are going to win in the Big East this year?”
Friend: “Go look at that schedule and tell me who we are going to beat.”
Me: “Alright, I think we can get to 5 wins.”
Friend: “Don’t do this to me.  We aren’t going to win a game.”
Me: “Seriously?  Do you think Jay should be fired?”
Friend: “We just lost to Columbia by 18 f*&&^^%( points at home!”
Me: “I’ll take that as a maybe.”

THE GAMES THAT QUIETLY DECIDED OUR SEASON

@Vanderbilt (W)

With a week off, Villanova then traveled to Vanderbilt.  It’s not that Vandy was or is any good, but getting a true road win at this point was a huge get. Yarou and JVP led the way with 16 and 13 respectively, showing the inside game that would lead us the rest of the year.  Arcidiacono was still looking tired and went only 1-5 from 3, and there were some serious questions about his ability to defend more athletic guards come Big East play.

Temple (L)

Although we ended up losing this game, there were some signs that things weren’t all bad.  However, at the time it was hard to see any silver lining.  Temple would go on to win by 16, but we actually had the lead at half 36-32.  Bell finally had somewhat of a break out game with 15 points, and we got to see a little Chennault action as he was our 2nd leading scorer with 10.

@Penn (W)

Villanova led wire to wire in this game.  We had an 8 point lead at half, and eventually won by 13.  Yacoubou finally got some extended minutes (I am an unabashed Yacoubou supporter, as he is an absolute monster on the defensive glass for a guard) and led the team with 13 points.  This was a game we should have won and did.  Not too much to say other than after the Columbia game anything seemed possible.

St. Joe’s (W)

At this point in the season St. Joe’s was 5-2, but one of those wins had come against Notre Dame.  Bell and JVP led the way with 12 points a pop, but the key was offensive rebounding.  For the second straight game we rounded more than 35% of our misses on the offensive end.  Oh, and this little late game inbounds defense by Sutton didn’t hurt either (go to the 4:38 mark).

Going 3-1 during this stretch definitely gets lost in the narrative of the season.  But it showed a couple of things: a) unlike last year, this team had fight and was actually interested in improving and winning and b) Jay was slowly making some adjustments (like playing a big line-up for extended minutes) that was going to lead the way for a change later in the season.

THE GAMES NO ONE WATCHED

Delaware (W), @Monmouth (W), NJ Institute of Technology (W)

There really isn’t much to report about these games, as all of the opponents were terrible, but there are a couple of things that stand out.  Against Delaware we rebounded over 50% of our misses.  Against Monmouth we shot 15-22 from 3, and against NJIT we played like crap but held them to just 37% shooting from 2.  We still hadn’t put anything together at this point, but these 3 stats have been the key to our season.  We are an above average rebounding team, we are a GREAT 2 point FG% defensive team, and our outside shooting comes and goes with the wind.

At 9-4 and with no really good wins and a terrible loss, the specter of last season loomed large.  With the final Big East regular season all that was left on the schedule, a .500 overall record was about the best anyone could hope for.  And even that seemed like a really big stretch.

Check back tomorrow for Part II: The Final Big East Regular Season.