The Sun Also Rises

I have been a little weak on content these past couple of weeks, but I promise next week you will not be disappointed.  In honor of keeping my personal goal of at least 2 posts a week, I am here to provide you with a sneak preview of the content in the week ahead.  And of course some random musings and stats.

Saturday at 2:00 we take on St. John's.  Quick note on St. John’s: They take only 23% of their shots from 3 & their opponents take almost 40% of their shots from 3.  That difference is absolutely amazing, and frankly I really don’t know what the hell it means, do you?  So combine that number with the pace St. John’s plays 66.6 possessions a game (pretty much exactly the D1 average – so not that fast) and the difference in shot attempts becomes even more startling.  If the pace was really high, I could imagine St. John’s running down the court creating TO’s and the other time being rushed and just chucking it (which is what 40% of shots from 3’s really is).  But I just don’t know.  I guess we will find out Saturday.  End quick, err medium note.

So, judging from a lot of the reactions going on in the comment threads on the other Nova blogs, the fan base is clearly circling this game as a must win, a season saver, and or a measuring stick for our overall progress.  I have to agree, but like me I also disagree.  There are no real must win games, except for the obvious one and done games like the tourney.  It always feels like it, but you know what? Let's just say we lose on Sat.  Guess what?  We are still going to play the rest of the games on our schedule.  We are still going to get into the Tournament.  As far as our seeding is concerned, all of these games are must wins and important games, but life and the season will continue.  The sun also rises.

Currently, Joe – I hate Villanova – Lunardi has us as a 4 seed.  I think that is about right, but I could see us currently as also a 5 seed.  Right now I think we are better than the 6 seeds (West Virginia, St. John’s, Missouri, Texas A&M), but we could slide down to one of those spots with a less than stellar finish to our season and a poor showing in the BE tourney.  The only way I see us sliding lower/worse than a 6^th seed would be if we lose out, and also lose to a Rutgers type in the opening game of the BE tourney.  I personally do not think that will happen, but the rest of you are entitled to your opinions.

Speaking of opinions, back to the comment boards.  The last couple of days there have been 2 much discussed topics.  End of game execution & playing time/rotation/and distribution of minutes.  I thought both of these would be excellent topics for me to research and write about.  Problem is they happen to be very in depth researching topics, and I have failed to finish them in time.  That’s why there is next week, and the sun also rises.

End of game execution:  A lot of NBA stats blogs/websites talk about clutch minutes, points, shots, %, etc.  They define it generally as something like this: clutch minutes = less than 3 minutes to go in a game when you are either up or down by so many points – 3 maybe 5? (I’m too lazy to actually look it up right now, and it’s not really important for our discussion)  I thought that approach would be a) too narrow – the NBA has longer games and more games which makes these stats more relevant & b) way too time consuming. 

So, I choose to look at the 9 games in which our margin of defeat or victory was less than or equal to 5 points.  We are 4-5 in these types of games.  W’s = La Salle, Temple, DePaul, Seton Hall.  L’s = Pitt, G’Town, UCONN, Syracuse, Rutgers.  Sorry for bringing that last one back into your memory, by the way the stats for Rutgers in the last 5 minutes are retarded.  They had an offensive rating of 263.93!!!!  So in 100 poss they would score 263 points.  On the season Rutgers rating is 106.6.  There are some very, very interesting stats from these games.  By the way I am looking at how we do as a team and as individuals in the last 5 minutes of these games.

Lineups/Rotation/Minutes Played:  First, now that Stokes is back you are going to see a much more steady rotation from Jay.  Last game was his first game back, so the minutes were all out of sorts.  So, what I plan on doing with this post is figuring out who I want to play how many minutes a game.  Then I am going to figure out who I want to play with whom and for how long (rotation).  Once I have my minutes and rotations set, I can then create a hypothetical team, and I can take a look at how they will produce.  This is a much more subjective post, and I know from the comment threads that there is a lot disagreement about who should be playing more minutes, etc.  And as you can tell, I haven’t fully developed this idea, and I may even scratch it.  Hopefully Saturday will give me some inspiration.

Villanova University Master Plan:  Last Tuesday, sorry two Tuesdays ago, I attended an Alumni event in DC where I live.  Father Donahue presented the Villanova University Strategic plan, well he talked about unveiling it and really just gave a heart pulling plea for money.  That’s fine, that’s what these event are all about.  And I thoroughly enjoyed the open bar and food, along with the good company.  However, in the presentation he showed some renderings of some of the proposed buildings and development that the University WANTS to do. (I want to stress that because this is a long way off, and there are many hurdles that must be jumped, ahem Radnor’s blessing) This got me curious, so I checked out the Villanova University Master Plan.  I am in the progress of getting my master’s in Urban Planning, so I obviously enjoy this stuff.  I plan on posting my thoughts about the Master Plan and the proposed development on our campus.  But for those who do not know, the big proposed development is… housing, specifically senior housing (who knows how many seniors will have to live there, ex: if 50% of the rooms are occupied by seniors, does that count as senior housing?  Or do all the rooms have to be occupied by seniors?) ALL ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF LANCASTER.  Yeah, that’s right, where the parking lots are.  I still don’t know exactly how I feel about it.  It will also include a performing arts center, and some shops, and stores and a completely retooled streetscape along Lancaster.

There it is: your week ahead preview.  For the record, I am really feeling pretty good about the game Saturday.  Maybe I’m naïve, or a homer, but I still feel like this team is growing.  We are in a rough patch, for sure, but we are young and talented.  The key is for us is to make sure everyone knows what role they are and then to execute it.  We have the pieces to the puzzle but they are not in the right place at the moment.  And for all of you who think the sun has set on this team (you probably would have stopped reading this lousy blog then), well you know what I would tell.

Syracuse Differential Graph & Observations

Last Friday, I did a guest post on the Nova Blog about what missing Corey Stokes means to our team, (note:  it does not include stats from the DePaul game).  So if you missed that here is the link: here.

Also, I am going to try after every game and provide the Differential graph along with 5 notes/observations.  They will be tied to the game, but they also might be more along the lines of current trends and issues that I have discussed earlier in the season.  So, you should still obviously continue to check out Villanova by the Numbers for your typical tempo-free analysis of each game.

Observations

1. Armwood is the man.  He got his first double double of his career and he will likely get many more of those in the next several years here at Nova.  He is the type of player who everyone on other teams hates because he has an attitude, some nastiness, and does all of the dirty work.  I originally believed Jay included him in the starting line up for these characteristics that he possesses, but now I believe there is another reason.  It is clear from the games that he has a great attitude in my opinion:  tough, fearless, and selfless.  He also is very vocal.  So next year who will be the leader of this team?  I think Armwood is clearly the one I want it to be, and I think Jay does to.  So by playing him and starting him, he has created a role for him on our team, gained the respect of the older players and more importantly the younger players.  As long as Armwood emerges as our unquestioned leader next year, we will be a much more mentally and physically tough team.  Example:  Near the end of the game in a big spot Armwood stepped up to the line to hit 2.  Didn’t you just know he was going to drill those?

2. Cheek.  Why is it that Cheek continues to see extensive minutes?  Last night he went 2-9, and took 39% of the teams shots while he was on the floor!  Are you serious?  39%?  For anyone out there who thinks, hey Cheek just needs to get his confidence back, you are crazy.  If taking 39% of a teams shots while your on the floor when you had made only 1 FG in the last 3 games isn’t confident, then I don’t know what is.  Talent and brains not confidence is the issue.  Is he a jump shooter or a slasher?  We see his body and say slasher and a scorer, yet rarely does he do these things.  Still he is taking over 40% of his shot attempts from 3.  He also has a very long release which I noticed last night.  Translation:  he is not a spot up shooter, nor do I think he can come off of screens that well.  His best shot is when he is on the dribble, and that is something I do not want to see him do.  However, I have a theory why he gets the minutes he does.  Cheek is from where?  New Jersey, right?  He was an All-American there, from a pretty good program.  If we are going to be successful recruiting, especially with Lavin at St. John’s (By the way for everyone giving Lavin all of this credit this year:  St John’s is the 2^nd, I repeat 2^nd most experienced team in the COUNTRY.  So yes, Lavin has done well, but if there was ever a year St. John’s would do well it would be when they have a very old experienced team) we need to keep getting top Jersey kids.  Cheek being a very good HS player means that he is looked up to in the state, by younger kids in his program and by other players who played against/watched him.  They will pay attention to Nova games, and will eventually become big fans and want to go to Nova as long as Cheek gets PT.  Jay must be thinking about this because there is no other explanation that I can think of that explains Cheeks continued floor time.

3. Stokes & Fisher:  So, as I talked about in my guest post, we need Stokes on offense.  He provides stability and he is a senior who makes good decisions.  Fisher is still our best player, but sometimes he is just off.  Last night was one of those days.  Here is the thing about these 2 players in my mind.  Fisher is the heart of our team.  When he is off, everything else seems to go kind of crazy, and he has yet shown the real leadership and also ability to get everyone else going even if he isn’t.  You can see it when he came to the bench last night, he wasn’t terribly upset but just shaking his head and he seemed frustrated.  (And in case you were wondering, I am not a body language expert for the Bill O'Reilly show.  Really how stupid is that?)   We need him to shake off bad starts, bad calls, and get people involved and make smart decisions.  As far as Stokes is concerned, he feeds off of energy but he doesn’t create it.  Everytime we had a big defensive play, he would come down and drill a shot, but if we needed him to hit a real big time shot while the chips were down, I don’t think he makes those.

4. Wayns.  With Armwood’s move into the starting line up and Jay’s insistence on playing Cheek around 20 minutes a game, Wayns has been hurt the most.  His minutes in BE play before Marquette – which marked the beginning of Armwood’s rise in PT – were 77.7% of minutes played.  Since Marquette and excluding the games Stokes missed (because clearly he got some of Stokes minutes while he was hurt) Wayns is playing only 62.5% of available minutes.  Also, since the Marquette game he has an eFG of 35.5%, which is very, very low.  I would need to look more in depth into what exactly has changed for Wayns, but I think he is struggling in his new role.  I like Armwood in the starting line up, but we need Wayns.  He needs more minutes not less.

5. Yarou – After the DePaul game I looked at the box score and saw that Yarou – who was not in foul trouble – only played 26 minutes.  He had 8 of our teams 15 offensive rebounds, and watching the first 5 minutes of the game (which I did before going to help a friend move) he was unstoppable down low.  It was clear they would not be able to keep him off the glass.  Flash forward to the game last night, and Yarou only played 17 minutes – again not in foul trouble.  This past game Jay went with a lot of different looks, and I think that in the next 2 games or so we are going to see a lot more consistency in the rotations now that Stokes is back.  However, we need Yarou.  I can’t think of why he only got 26 and 17 minutes in back to back games without foul trouble.

V is for Valentine

Dear Jay,

It’s been 9 years since we began our relationship.  During that time I have only questioned you on a couple of occasions, but each time I did I realized that you were good enough for me.  You may not always have the best game plans, but you are always the sexiest man in the room.  You have brought sound basketball into my life, and your 12-6 tournament record with 4 Sweet 16’s; 2 Elite 8’s, and of course 1 Final Four fills the cockles of my heart with warmth.

- Yours in Basketball

Dear C-Fish,

My how the time has passed.  4 years ago you stepped on campus and showed flashes of your offensive ability.  Although at times throughout these years, I have wanted you to stick up for me more – read: play some actual defense – you have proved yourself a beautiful lover – read talented offensive player.  I need you to continue to be strong and lead Corey.  I know our time left is short, but I just want you to know I treasure every moment.

- Yours in Offensive Basketball

Dear Pena,

Your soft shooting touch reminds me of past lovers.  Consistently, when you have been needed you have been there, and for that I will always be grateful.  Our time is numbered now Antonio, but you will now share a place in my heart alongside other undersized big men.

- Yours in the High Post

Dear Stokes,

We had such high hopes for our future together back in your younger days.  Although, I know that you will always leave me wanting more, and at times you have left me hung out to dry – 2 for 16 against Providence.  But we both know that we need each other even if that means our relationship is doomed.  Let’s enjoy our what time we have left and make the best of it.

- Yours From Behind the Arch

Dear Sutton,

I can’t explain it, but I like you.  Maybe it is your attractive block rate – 10.5 – or your very high FTrate – 120.7 or your awkward looking nose.  Either way I look forward to seeing where our relationship goes.  We should remain friends for now, but in the future I am excited to spend more time together.

- Yours From the Block Party

Dear Armwood,

In the short time we have known each other; I have become open to giving you my whole heart.  It is mine for now, but as you continue to crack people upside the head, elegantly swipe boards on both ends, and blossom into our unquestioned emotional leader the butterflies will continue to swirl around in my stomach.  When and if you develop the soft lovers mid range touch, I will gladly give myself to you for a chance to have a versatile swingman.

- Yours From the Wing

Dear Maalik,

I’m yours.  You are so giving – 34.3 ARate! – and you never shy away from those challenging moments every relationship has.  Don’t speak, don’t say a word, just continue to play and I will be there.

- Totally Yours Driving in the Lane

Dear Yarou,

God forbid Maalik does not accept my love, you can have me.  We have so much more time together with you pulling down boards – 13.4 OR% & 19.5 DR% - that I just can’t get enough.  I always enjoy our time on the dance floor - great footwork for a big man – and I look forward to our time at the Big Dance later this year.

- Yours in the Paint

Dear Bell,

We are in the ‘just getting to know you stage’ and I am very happy with a first couple of dates so far.  We need more time together – playing only 14.4% of minutes so far – but I can already tell you have all the moves.  I don’t know if I can wait for next year though, so let’s make the most of this small window of opportunity this year and see where it takes us.

- Yours Off the Bench

Dear Cheek,

Breaking up is always hard to do.  But until you mature and show that your are ready for a serious relationship – for starters you could take less 3’s, currently taking 47% of his shots from behind the arc, or you could not make selfish decisions, like taking the last shot off balance and ill-timed in 2 games!.  So until you show me that you are capable of thinking about us and not you then we should just be friends.  Maybe in a year or two when you have realized what you have lost, then you can grow up and we can spend more time together.

- Yours ON the Bench

Style Points

First, I have been sick all week with the Flu, and so I have not been as active researching on here as I would like to be.  I apologize to all my adoring fans.  Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, I feel the need to ATTEMPT and quell the anger that ensued in my inbox box from Nova friends after the [choose your own adjective] that occurred in the great shitty state of New Jersey on Wednesday, although I don’t think I can.  Third, if you haven’t noticed, I created an additional page on the site that shows the differential graphs from all of our games.  Check them out.

I have some answers, I think.  Well, maybe just some rationale which you can take or leave.  But here it is.  The most defining characteristic both offensively and defensively for THIS team – unlike other Nova teams – is the number of 3 pt. shot attempts.  Although, you could argue that it has always defined us, but I am rambling now.  Question:  What the f%@*) are you talking about?

Answer:  A lot of times you will hear statements such as:  “Nova lives and dies by the 3.”  And or some silly announcers or commentators will highlight our 3 pt. shooting as the key to the game or as a focus of their broadcast.  Laziness pure and simple, because this could never be more inaccurate.  On the season, we have attempted 31% of our total shot attempts from 3.  Which ranks us 211^th (according to kenpom) in the country.  This style of passing up on 3’s is the lynch pin in understanding our team offensively.  You can see the effects trickle into other statistical categories.  Listed below is a retrospective look at how we compare stylistically with past Nova teams.

	3PA/FGA		A/FGM		FTA/FGA
2011	31.4		58.9		44.1
2010	34.5		49.9		43.9
2009	32		55.8		41.9
2008	34.9		53.7		38.9
2007	39.1		54.5		41.7
2006	39.6		49.8		36.9
2005	34		48.1		37.6
2004	36.6		57.5		39.1

We take fewer 3’s than any Nova team since 04.  Only in 09 did we depend almost as less on the 3 for our offense.  So if you pass on 3’s that means you are getting penetration.  We can see that in our A/FGM rate and also in our FTrate.  FTrate is the best in this time frame and so is our A/FGM.  Translation: we are a pretty damn efficient offense, and an offense that is consistent.  Because we have and have consistently had a high FT% getting to the line will result in consistent points.  Additionally, by NOT relying on our outside shooting we can easily avoid shooting slumps that can cause us to loose (well sort of so long as Stokes doesn’t go 1-11 or some shit – hey Corey, remember feet set, stationary shots, shhh don’t tell anybody).  Currently, we are ranked 11^th nationally in offensive efficiency, and also we have had an ORtg over 100 in every game but 3 (all losses – Tenn, UCONN, Providence).  Even in those games we had a rating in the 90’s, not good but you can win games with ratings in the 90’s if you have a solid defense.  We have also had 9 games where we had an ORtg above 120 this season, losing once to RU.  Loosing with an ORtg of above 120 to RU is crazy, absolutely crazy.

So what about defense?  Here is the lists’ including our opponents 3FG%, which I thought was interesting.

	3PA/FGA		A/FGM		FTA/FGA		3FG%
2011	35.5		59.4		33.6		30.0
2010	38.5		58.8		49.1		33.6
2009	41.2		61.2		38.8		33.6
2008	40.9		57.6		46.4		36.5
2007	40.2		56.0		42.0		35.2
2006	31.2		60.1		37.4		33.7
2005	33.5		60.4		38.6		31.8
2004	33.3		56.3		40.9		32.8

So our opponents don’t take many 3’s against us either, we don’t put them on the line, and they assist on a decent amount of buckets.  The Assist stat is a little misleading here.  In my opinion you want the opponent to have a high assist to FG rate, and if you look at the 3 highest over this time span you will find our 3 best defensive teams – 09, 06, 05.  Each of those teams could defend every position individually so you needed good efficient offensive sets and team work to create a bucket.  I think the most telling stat is defensively our FTrate.  Look how low that is!  Maybe we are soft and we do not challenge at the rim?  Maybe we just play very good defense and don’t foul.  I think it reflects a lack of grit and toughness inside.  Overall, a low FTA/FGA defensively is never a terrible thing, but I think we could handle fouling a little bit more especially with our depth.  All in all the numbers suggest we are a better defensive team then what we see on TV.  What gives?

Rationale:  Here is my take away and final conclusion, and for the first time I am putting forth a HIGHLY SUBJECTIVE explanation.  Take it or leave it.

Because offensively we do not attempt as many 3’s we have developed a consistent efficient offense.  However, this offense is not a quick strike offense, nor an offense that can in a matter of minutes put up a 12 or 15 point run.  If you take a look at many of the differential graphs, shameless plug, you can see that we simply play more efficiently than our opponents and only rarely do we throw in a slow methodical 10 point run.  So even though we are a solid offensive team, do we strike any fear into the other team?  Do we score so easily and quickly that we force the other team to take bad shots?  I think because we get fouled so often (FTrate) the attitude from the other team is that they simply bailed us out.  They got a call, or a lucky break.  Finally, I have seen myself and also read on other blogs about the seemingly ‘bored’ fans at games.  I don’t know about you but isn’t the loudest part of the game after a big time 3 was hit to either tie a game, start a comeback, or put the nail in the coffin.  We don’t have as many of those moments in our games.  Our offense consists of getting to the line.  I don’t scream every time Wayns hits a FT, but maybe we should.  (Still no excuse for the fans to be so out of it at games)

All of this translates then into our defensive numbers.  Defensively, we have a bad tendency which my father always talks about and very much dislikes.  In our half court defense we try to defend the Entire half court, far outside the 3 pt. line.  This results in few 3 point attempts by our opponents, but they can penetrate and dish and get easier buckets.  We have already discussed a lot this year about our inability to keep our opponents in front of us.  This is why we have actually used the 2-3 zone, and why we have seen Armwood enter the starting line-up.  We can’t stop penetration by teams with any type of quick PG.  And we don’t scare teams offensively enough to force them into bad possessions on the other end.  And we give up easier buckets than we should off of their penetration.  The final nail in the coffin is our paltry TO% on defense which is 18.8%.  That puts us at 261^st.  Yuck.  This again stops us from making any extended runs, and allows our opponents to have more possessions. 

In conclusion, maybe, just maybe we actually need to live and die by the 3 a little more.  Cheek I don’t mean you, son.

Marquette: Graph & Notes

A quality bounce back win yesterday.  As always check out the Nova blogs located on the side for some re-cap, but here is the Marquette differential.  I think this graph illustrates the fact that even in the second half when the game got close, you just knew we were going to win.

Quick notes:  Armwood started I think in an attempt in increase our defensive intensity and bring some toughness, but I think he needs some time to get used to his larger role.  Yarou woke up from hibernation, thank God.  And Fisher and Stokes did just enough.  I think they did not force too much and took shots when we needed them to.  Finally, I will be willing to bet my entire weeks allowance that over 90% of the 3-pointers Stokes MAKES are when he is set-up (not coming off screens or off the dribble).  I would also wager that over 70% of his misses are on shots not when he is set up.  Has there ever been a more 1 dimensional shooter?  How stupid is it that I know he is going to miss his shot when he is running off a screen but yet I still want him to take the shot?  Do I just refuse to believe that he cant hit that?  Is our offense that stagnant sometimes that I am ok with a shot he hits about 11% of the time?  In any event, we really need to increase of defensive pressure.  I think that is our most pressing need right now, and again the reason Armwood saw extra minutes.  I also like that Jay tried something new.

Alright, a little different graph this time let me know which one you like better.

Differential Equations

I hated this class at Nova.  It was my least favorite class by far, and I enjoy and have always been good at mathematics, part of the reason for why I do this blog.  This post is about score differentials throughout a game.

I am continuing to do a longer research project on the concept of ‘a run.’  The impetus for this research is two fold. First, from observations so far this year, I feel as if we have not had many true ‘runs’ (especially against any quality opponent).  Secondly, this train of thought follows along nicely with my last post about what our bench is able to provide to this team.  If our bench contains our strong defensive players who give great effort and hustle (qualities I believe you need in order to create a run and qualities which our Main 5 do not seem to have) but who lack offensive capabilities (again a quality necessary for a run but also qualities our Main 5 have), then how can you actually create a run.  It seems as if our bench and our Main 5 have 2 separate pieces of the puzzle, and we have not yet figured out a way (lineup?) that puts the two together. 

A major hurdle in this research project, one which I have thus far failed to overcome, is how should a run be defined.  I suggested above that there needs to be a combination of offense and defense, but what is the appropriate threshold.  Is it 4 successful offensive possessions (not necessarily consecutive) without allowing your opponent a successful possession?  On the opposite side of the spectrum, we could define a run as in any specific amount of time/possessions when you double the score of your opponent.  So any time we score 10 points and our opponent scores 5 or less in a stretch.  Both of these seem inadequate.  In any event I attempted to compile some data from our games hoping to find some trends that could help me create a successful definition.  In doing so I created these graphs which display the point differential throughout the game.

I plan on pursuing my research on ‘runs,’ but that will have to be for another post.  Now for the questions.  In games we win: do we create runs or simply play more efficiently than our opponent; and in losses: do we give up runs, or simply play less efficiently than our opponent?  The graphs show an interesting story so far, check them out.

NOTE:  In a spreadsheet I put in two columns the Nova score and the opponent score every time there was a point or points scored.  So the x-axis reflects how many times a score was made, and thus it does NOT reflect the time on the clock or of individual possessions.  Pretty much the x-axis is meaningless really.  The line represents whether or not we are ahead by so many points or behind, and the space where the line breaks into two lines is halftime.  I have put up 4 games.  2 wins & 2 losses.  1 win and l loss which are NOT typical games (Syracuse & Providence – doesn’t it suck that you have to say you lost to Providence?  I didn’t even want to have to type it.) and 1 win and 1 loss which are relatively normal (Georgetown & Maryland).

 

We Roll 9 Deep

As always, if you want a re-cap of the vomit session game check out Villanova by the Numbers for the stats breakdown and the Nova Blog or VU Hoops for your opinion pieces.  So, as I entered the box score info from Saturday’s defeat into my spreadsheet to update my season calculations I was shocked at what I saw.  Our Main 5 – Fisher, Wayns, Stokes, Pena & Yarou each individually had an eFG% of over 50%, while our bench, well let’s just say it was not one of their better games.  Here it is:

	%MIN	%Shots	eFG%	Ftrate
MAIN 5	76.0%	81.5%	53.4%	40.9
BENCH	24.0%	18.5%	10.0%	60.0

So our bench as a whole had an eFG% of 10%, which is beyond terrible.  To be fair to the rest of the bench, this was pretty much all Cheek.  He went 1-7. Yuck.  Bell did not play and Armwood and Sutton were a combined 0-3.  But we don’t really care about their scoring, but should we?  For a hint of positivity, look at their FTrate which is pretty good and better than our Main 5.  Finally for the record, I am no way suggesting our bench cost us the game, because we don’t count on them for that.

So what is the deal with our bench?  I feel as if this thought hasn’t really entered my mind until now.  Most of the focus this year, from what I can tell, has been about a couple of things: a)  how are Fisher & Stokes doing in their new roles?  b) what is up with Wayns & Yarou, ie. how good are they?  & c) you know as a program we really can teach undersized big guys how to hit open jumpers and play within themselves.  

What did we know to begin the year?  Cheek was somewhat of a question mark heading into this season for me.  I thought he was athletic and that he SHOULD be able to guard other athletic swingmen, but I was also unsure about his offensive capabilities.  Everyone I know really liked Armwood.  He has length, is athletic, hustles, and can defend several positions, but we all know that at this point in his career his offensive ability is limited, to say the least.  Sutton was always viewed as just some tall way too skinny guy who did not really do much for us other than pick up some minutes in our front court.  Bell as a freshman was an unknown.

Here we are 8 games into Big East play, so what have we learned?  Everyone still likes Armwood, but his lack of offensive ability, although it is not the reason we put him out there, it is the reason he doesn’t see even more minutes.  Sutton has actually shown some solid defensive ability, with an 11.7 block rate – puts him first on the team, Armwood is second at 6.7.  Bell has received only a handful of minutes each game, but it seems he is the most offensively talented out of our bench/role players.  I think Cheek has been the most disappointing, because it was clear after his freshman year he had the most upside after Yarou and Wayns.  For this season, he has a good OR% at 9.3% - ok makes sense he is an athletic, longer guard, but he has a low FTrate at 34.8.  He also has attempted 46% of his shots from 3 – thus probably the reason for his poor FTrate.  I don’t think he really gets it offensively yet.  I am not ready to toss him into the Reggie Redding category, but he is looking more like that than anything else.  He needs to get to the rim more and not settle for 3’s.  Really other than Stokes, Fisher, or Wayns on occasion, I don’t want anyone else taking a 3 unless they are wide open because their defender tore an ACL and is sprawled out on the ground.

Although I am interested in how each bench player performs, I am more interested in how they contribute to our team as a unit – I know they don’t play as a unit but still.  So here are some interesting stats about what our bench contributed in our 3 recent losses.

	%MIN	%Pts	%Shots	eFG%	%OR	%Asst.	%TO	Ftrate	%Blk	%Stl
Georgetown	24.0%	9.1%	18.5%	10.0%	16.7%	16.7%	22.2%	60.0	25.0%	20.0%
Providence	24.0%	23.5%	15.6%	41.7%	42.9%	0.0%	27.3%	66.7	100.0%	50.0%
UCONN	19.5%	5.1%	10.0%	16.7%	33.3%	0.0%	25.0%	50.0	100.0%	50.0%

So other than eFG% and FTrate – which you already know what those mean – the rest of the categories are pure percentages.  So for example, against UCONN our bench combined for 33% of all the offensive rebounds our team grabbed in that game.  Here are 3 examples of our bench during a couple of quality wins.

	%MIN	%Pts	%Shots	eFG%	%OR	%Asst.	%TO	Ftrate	%Blk	%Stl
Syracuse	17.0%	15.7%	10.0%	90.0%	57.1%	0.0%	10.0%	100.00	66.7%	0.0%
Cincinnati	29.5%	16.7%	16.7%	64.3%	50.0%	0.0%	26.3%	57.14	62.5%	25.0%
Louisville	17.0%	8.0%	10.3%	58.3%	18.2%	25.0%	16.7%	0.00	0.0%	18.2%

So it’s easy to see that our bench can be very up and down, but I think there is a clear take away.  Our bench provides effort and defense.  The % of OR for all games is pretty solid, and so is the FTrate.  The % of blocks is also high, while the % of TO’s, % of Asst. and % of shots show that offensively we do not count on this group for all that much.  This makes sense.  Our bench is comprised of freshman and sophomores, and we do not have a single junior who plays.  We know our bench can play defense and will do the dirty work, but we need some offensive production out of it if we are going anywhere.  This is best illustrated in the bench eFG% in our losses vs. our wins.  Who will step up and provide the offense to go along with the effort.  If we are looking at significant playing time numbers, it has to be Cheek.  He gets around 20 minutes every game. (Armwood is usually in the 15 min range, Sutton is a tad under 10, and Bell gets some cheap 5 mins)  We need him to contribute more offensively, but we do not need him to put up another 1-7 effort.  I would rather see any of our starters force more shots than see Cheek force anything.  Bell to me has shown he could be part of that solution, but so far Jay has not given him enough PT for him to really fit the bill.  Moving forward we are going to need some more efficient offensive production from our bench if we are going to remain in contention for the Big East title.