What Did We Learn?

Losing sucks, but just like in life when things go wrong we need to reflect on what happened.  So over the weekend we had 2 games.  We beat a decent Maryland team and lost by 2 on a late shot by Walker on the road at UCONN.  I think these 2 games perfectly highlight a big issue for this team moving forward.  We got some answers but I’m not sure if we know the whole story yet.

So shortly before Nova went on their 19-0 run, it was the first time in a really long time I was unsure if we were going to pull it out or poo our ass.  I could easily see it going either way.  One thought came into my head however.  I said to myself, “myself, you know if Scottie was on this team, I know he would be TRYING to do SOMETHING right now.  Maybe not win the game but he would be putting his head down going to the cup or taking shots, advised or otherwise.”  At least Scottie knew he needed to do something.  Because up until that run who was really doing anything?  But as we all know Fisher came on and spurred the run, and everyone who watched Monday saw that Fisher clearly wanted the rock in the 2^nd half.

I think as far as the Good from this weekend, we clearly saw that Fisher is our leader and he has shown in the past two games that he will, at the very least, attempt to carry us.  Other than the Tennessee game I also believe this was one of the first times we really saw of what we as a team are made.  Here are some interesting stats from the second half of both games.

Fisher in the 2^nd half

	FGM	FGA	3PM	3PA	FTM	FTA	OREB	DEF	PTS	AST	TO
UCONN	6	13	1	4	4	4	0	1	17	5	0
Maryland	5	9	3	5	0	0	1	1	13	3	1

The Rest of the Team in the 2^nd half

	FGM	FGA	3PM	3PA	FTM	FTA	OREB	DEF	PTS	AST	TO
UCONN	8	14	0	3	4	5	2	10	20	1	5
Maryland	7	20	1	6	13	17	10	13	28	3	7

I did not post any of the 4 factor stats here because Villanova By the Numbers always has 1st and 2nd half breakdowns. So what is clear from these games is that Fisher took over the game against UCONN and played very efficiently in the 2^nd half against Maryland, especially when we needed him most (he went 3/4 from the field and hit 2 3's during the big run) .  Just from a very, very cursory glance a big difference between the two games was offensive rebounds and getting to the foul line from the rest of the team, everything else is pretty similar. 

However let’s focus on Fisher.  First and foremost look at Fisher’s FTrate.  Against UCONN it was 30.8 and against Maryland he did not attempt any Freebies.  On the season Fisher’s FTrate is 51.8.  So what is going on here?  Sample size is small but still it is telling.  When Fisher is pushing to score he is not getting to the line.  9 of his 22 attempts were from 3.  This is too high as well and clearly an indication that he is trying for the home-run attempt rather than chip away or take the efficient route.  On the season Fisher attempts 36% of his shots from 3, and in the 2^nd half of these games he took 40% of his shots from behind the arc.  I am not finding any fault with Fisher for his attempt to carry-us, because without him stepping up in the Maryland game we do not win, and the UCONN game would not have been as close.  What I am advocating for is for Fisher to use his strengths and get to the line.  Although we need to him to take charge, I do not believe we need him to dominate every single possession the way he did in the UCONN game.  The stats alone show how much he handled the ball, but from just watching it, it seemed like he had way too many possession where once we got into the half court he was the only one who touched the rock!

Ok so who else is there though?  I know I do not need to even put up any of Stokes’ numbers from the last 2 games to show you that he has been performing very poorly, but you know what here they are: 

Stokes went 4/20 from the field including 1/10 from 3 for a total of 12 pts.

	eFG%	Ftrate
UCONN	0.00%	50
Maryland	32.10%	0

You know what the kicker is:  He played 74 of a possible 80 mins!  Ok, so he is a little banged up, but what about his performance prior to this.  Were the 5 games before this just an aberration?  Most likely the combination of tougher opponents and a mild injury are the cause.  However, I think we just overvalued his ability.  Let me ask you this:  Besides being a spot-up shooter, what is Stokes’ next best strength?  That he doesn’t turn over the ball?  Really is that’s it?  He can’t really beat anyone off the dribble, but he is improving.  He is an OK defender at best, and he is not a very strong rebounder.  So yeah he can shoot and he makes decent decisions (which really translates into – passing the ball as long as he doesn’t have a shot).  Here is a fun tidbit.  So the last basket Maryland scored before we went on our little 19-0 run happened because of a Stokes turnover.  Want to know how they scored to stop their drought?  Yep, after a turnover by Stokes.

Here is what we have learned these 2 games.  Stokes really is very 1 dimensional.  I have 0 problem whatsoever with him taking any 3 when he has his feet set, but outside of that he is very limited.  Fisher wants to be the man, and at times we need him to be the man.  However, he needs to still take what is given to him and find away to get to the line.  In short the attitude is there and the talent is there, but a little better decision making would go a long way.  Bigger questions now remain for us.  Stokes is clearly more of a number 3, but on a game to game basis he can get hot and become the number 2, maybe even very rarely the number 1.  Obviously the next man up is Wayns.  My next post will be dedicated to what he has done this year to date and what we can expect from him to come.