The Lackluster 1-2-2 & the Maturation of Corey Stokes

Over the last 5 games, the V has dismissed Temple, RU, South Florida, the Nati, and L’ville (make sure you pronounce it right!).  For the record I was only able to watch 2 games.  Temple with my over excited friend Soci, who was almost too much for me to handle that day.  In that game we got off to a traditional start for Nova, where the other team cannot miss for their first 4 possessions and we slowly start to get into a rhythm, a run here, couple of bad possessions here, you know the drill.  Seems like every game is the same sometimes, doesn’t.  He would not calm down, but good thing Big Worm was there with some shots so he was distracted.  The other game I was able to watch was the L’ville game, same beginning by the way so maybe it is just the games I watch where this happens.  But eventually we strung enough points together to dismiss them.  Side note:  I almost vomited when that scrawny guy – no idea his name- took the inbounds with 3 seconds on the shot clock and hit a turn around 3 from the NBA line.  I just can’t stand those plays.

All right so over that stretch of basketball we played better offense and worse defense then our season average.  Here is how we break down over the 5 games stretch according to the 4 Factors.

FOUR FACTORS
	OFF	DEF
Rating	117.2310721	100.6087559
eFG%	56%	47%
TO%	20%	20%
OR%	38%	33%
FTA/FGA	57.2	43.2

The only category we performed worse over this stretch (on offense that is) is in our TO%.  On the season we turn it over on only 18% of our possessions, not really a HUGE difference but an area we need to improve.  Here is how we perform on the season including these 5 games.

FOUR FACTORS
	OFF	DEF
Rating	113.6265189	90.09871646
eFG%	52%	43%
TO%	18%	20%
OR%	36%	27%
FTA/FGA	46.3	33.1

So clearly you can see our defense has suffered over these last 5 games.  Easy explanation is we have played better opponents than our cupcake schedule to date.  From watching the games though 2 things stand out in my mind. 

First, we do not have good individual defenders.  Stokes is improving (and that is the nice way of saying it), and Fisher seems terribly slow.  He isn’t really quick on D and seems to get burned pretty easily on the ball.  Wayns should be better but he just doesn’t seem to quite get it.  So we are having trouble defending the guards and allowing them to get where they want which will always cause defensive issues.

The other big issue is our 1–2-2 press, which we use only in moderation, but I do not think I have seen it create 1 turnover so far.  And it has not caused the other team really any problems.  If you watched the L’ville game they got so many open looks off of that press it wasn’t even funny.  They had at least 3 if not more of their 8 3’s in the first half off of that press.  Plus the press is designed to speed up the game and take time off of the shot clock for the other teams offense.  L’ville likes the fast paced games.  They average 70 possessions a game when we are around 68.  In their 2 losses prior to ours both games were played at a 64 possession pace, that’s 6 yes 6 possessions slower than their average.  Why do we want them to play faster?  Ok, I will mildly accept that we like the up tempo game and want the pace to be high because we score more efficiently, but it just doesn’t seem right. 

Big issue is our lineup.  We do not play very many players and our role guys:  Armwood and Cheek play only 35% and 52% of the available minutes.  While Fisher, Wayns, Stokes & Pena all play over 70% of the total minutes.  (Yarou is at 59% if you were wondering)  So what do we know about our starting lineup and the 1-2-2.  You need a longer athletic 3 or 4 up top of the press.  Ideally this would be Armwood.  He seems like he was made for this role, however Cheek could be serviceable (but he never has his hands up defensively, right?)  So what we are left with is Pena up top, but he is too slow to really make a difference, and we are left with small guards on the wings to trap (ie. Taller guards/forwards can pass over) and or a sub-average defender in Stokes.

Suggestion.  Only use the 1-2-2 when it is the right strategy & with the right line-up.  If you noticed we did not use it much in the 2^nd half.  Maybe Jay is stubborn and wants to use it, but we will see if it continues. 

So what about our offense over the last 5.  If take on look at the numbers there is a stat that should be screaming at you.  Look, ok.  Got it?  The FTrate, which equals how well we get to the line in our attempt to score (FTA/FGA*100).  It jumped by almost 11 points, and the answer is Corey Stokes.

Stokes has in my opinion sucked for 3 years.  He has been lazy on D and seemingly settled for 3’s.  I don’t know what happened to him finally but he is getting the picture especially in these last 5 games.

Stokes

	eFG%	Ftrate
Last 5	76.10%	79.5
Season	63.60%	37

Ok so he is shooting better as well as the eFG% suggests (eFG% is a weighted FG percentage.  Logic is simple it gives more credit for a 3 than for a 2, formula is FGM+.5*3FGM/FGA) In case you are used to more traditional stats Stokes shot 19/31 over the last 5 a 61% while on the year he is 52/111 for 47%.  But forget that for a second, cause look at the FTrate.  That is badass especially when you consider how f-ing good he is at the charity strip.  In this 5 game stretch he has attempted 50% of his total FT’s for the entire year!  Also he has been consistent.  In each of the last 5 games he has attempted at least 5 FT’s per game.  In the prior 11 games Stokes is averaging only 2.8 FT’s per game.  He is finally blossoming into a legitimate 2^nd option instead of the 3^rd option or simply a threat from 3.  We now have a starting line-up with 3-4 guys who must be accounted for on every possession.  This is only going to help CFish and Wayns who will receive less attention.  Let alone that we have 2 decent bigs now who complement each other well.

Enough is enough.

Next game:  Saturday against Maryland.  According to kenpom.com we are expected to win 73-68 with a 69% probability.  Maryland is ranked 12^th in his rankings (we are 10) but Maryland is the top ranked defensive team in the nation and they like to play fast averaging 72 possessions a game with is good for 19^th in the nation.

Don’t forget to:  Throw Your God Damn V’s UP!