Season Preview Part II: Sweating the Close Stuff

Created by my good friend Eliot Zuniga. www.eliotzuniga.webs.com

 Game number II is already here as Nova begins Big 5 play tonight against LaSalle, who played us really tough last year.  Like most of you this will be the first time I will get a look at all of our Freshmen.  There are a decent amount of question marks about this team.  We know a good amount about our top 3 players, but the rest and how they fit in are obviously going to be crucial as the season progresses.

If you haven’t taken a look around at some of the new features of the site check them out.  During the season I will update the player & team stats at least once a week, and I will have the game differential charts up shortly after every game.  The Quick Hitters section (not sure I like the name, maybe Mid-Range Jumpers?) is a new section where I will add short little opinion rants or interesting stats about our team as the season goes on.  The main page will continue with the longer more research oriented content, and as some of my more dedicated readers have suggested, I will put up a glossary of terms soon.  For now though check out kenpom.com for all your stat definition questions.

If you missed the first part of the season preview, where I discuss the potential development of our 3 core returning players: Wayns, Cheek, & Yarou, here it is.  Also, on the Quick Hitters page I have 5 questions I am hoping to begin to find answers to by watching tonight’s game.

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One of the biggest question marks for this upcoming year will be how we handle close games.  As a team without any Seniors and a team that will rely on a lot of young players, we are probably going to be a little inconsistent.  We have talent, but we have a lot of players playing together for the first time and many will find themselves in unfamiliar roles.  In almost any season close games are important.  How many times have you seen a team that was young and talented but not quite good enough and seen the stat flashed on the screen that they have lost 7 games by a combined 15 pts?  At least 3 times a season. So, how we perform in those games WILL define our season.  As usual let’s take a look at last season.

Here is how our win to loss breakdown based on where we stood with 5 minutes remeaining.

	Record	Home	Away
10+ pts @5	14-1	11-0	3-1
0 > 10 pts @5	6-3	2-0	4-3
0 > -10 pts @5	1-5	0-3	1-2
-10 pts @5	0-3	0-1	0-2

So we had only 1 come from behind win in the last 5 minutes, and we gave up 3 games when we were leading by less than 10.  On its face this does not seem too bad.  However, our point differential in games we were leading by less than 10 was -6, and our point differential in games we were losing by less than 10 was -5.  In games when either leading or losing by 10, we were either outscored in the last 5 minutes, or scored equally with our opponent, or outscored our opponent by only 1 pt. (DePaul) in 10 of those 15 games.  Wow, we sucked in close games last year, didn’t we?

The picture continues to get a little grimmer when you look at how we preformed in games where we were leading or losing by 5 pts or less.

Record Home Away 0 >  5 pts. @5 3-3 2-0 1-3 -5 > 0 pts. @5 1-2 0-2 1-0

I took a look at the play in 10 of those 15 games – 5 wins & 5 losses - where we were either leading or losing by 10, and here is what I found. 

These are our offensive numbers by the 4 factors for wins & losses, which is which?

	A	B
eFG	50.0%	61.3%
OR%	26.7%	53.8%
TO%	27.2%	18.9%
FTA/FGA	119.05	100

In both wins & losses we had an eFG% of above 50%, and also FTrate of above 100!!! That’s pretty f*ing good.  Oh, did I forget to mention that column A are our wins?  Could have been either, right?

And here is our defensive numbers in the 4 factors for wins & losses, which is which?

	A	B
eFG	33.9%	80.0%
OR%	31.8%	35.7%
TO%	14.9%	18.9%
FTA/FGA	74.19	93.33

Wow, do I need to point out which column are our wins and which are our losses?

So for all the talk about the offense and the “burn”, yuck – to be honest it did deserve our disgust - it was really our defense that let us down.   Losing Stokes, Fisher & Pena will change and possibly hurt our offense, but all 3 were average to below average defenders who played a lot of minutes in crunch time – I may even be a little nice with calling them average.  It is yet to be seen if the new comers are stalwart defenders, but they are long, should be full of enthusiasm and energy, and are most likely looking to please the coach to get extra pt.  Close games define any season, and one with as much uncertainty as this season, will mean we will probably be doing a lot of sweating this year.

Season Preview Part I: What Do We Really Know About This Season?

What happened these last 6 months?  After completely mailing in the last 10 games of the season, we then had to sit through several months of chaos with the whole “I want as much money as possible and I don’t care about anyone else” ordeal.  Otherwise know as college re-alignment.

But here we are.  Big East media day for football in 2013, I mean for this upcoming basketball season, happened earlier in the week, and Hoops Mania is set for tonight.  Wait, why is the annual Blue & White game on Saturday at 11:30 AM?  Whatever, the times are a changin’, and so it is time to sit down and think about this upcoming season.

The last time I felt so unsure about an upcoming season was in 2008, when all we really knew was that Scottie had a good Freshman year and we had some young good recruits coming in, but we did not know what to really expect – this was before Dante became a machine.  I think it is pretty clear right now at this moment that Wayns, Yarou & Cheek as the 3 elder statesmen are going to be the reason we succeed or fail.  It’s time to take a closer look.

Why did it seem like Cheek, Wayns & Yarou all took a step back last year?

First I think it is important to point out that the whole team seemed to take a step back last year.  A quick look back at the numbers from 2 years ago to last year shows that every single player not named Stokes or Armwood had a lower eFG% than the year prior.  That’s crazy!  Here take a look:

Fisher	eFG%	%Shts
'10	51.0	22.8
'11	48.5	26.1
Stokes
'10	54.0	19.4
'11	58.2	22.8
Pena
'10	57.7	18.1
'11	50.6	17.8
Wayns
'10	48.3	24.0
'11	44.5	25.9
Yarou
'10	58.3	12.9
'11	49.8	18.4
Cheek
'10	50.4	19.5
‘11	43.6	19.2
Armwood
'10	48.1	11.2
'11	49.1	7.4

I don’t think I would have ever guessed that Scottie’s impact on our team offensively was THAT great.  But these numbers seem to suggest that he really allowed for everyone to get easier and better looks.  Look closely at Yarou, Pena & Cheek.  They had their eFG% drop by 7, 9, and 7 %pts. respectively.  That is a huge drop-off.  Why did this happen?

- Wayns carried a larger bulk of the offense last year, and so his dip stems from having to take more shots – he will shoot better from 3 this year I promise.  He did also post an ARate of 32.4 which is the highest ARate in the Jay Wright era.  At the end of the day, and at the end of the shot clock, we relied on him too much as a shooter.

- Yarou also took a larger role in the offense, increasing his shot output by almost 6%, so that explains some of the decrease in efficiency but not all.  He either did not get as many quality opportunities as he had last year or he simply shot terribly and made poor decisions.  Probably a little of both, but I’m siding on the lack of quality opportunities

- Cheek took almost the same amount of shots, but saw his eFG drop significantly.  The reason for his drop-off is very simple.  In 2010, only 33% of Cheek’s shot attempts were from 3 – which he hit at a 31% rate – and he also had a very respectable 40.6 FTRate.  In 2011 he settled for jumpers pure and simple.  50% of his shot attempts were from 3 – which he hit at a 30% clip – and he had an FTRate of only 28?!?!  Also, it is not hard to see that Cheek is much better in transition than in the half court.  We all know how our offense slowed to a halt last year, and as a result, the slow pace highlighted the weaknesses in Cheek’s game.  I think he CAN improve, but he has some work to do other than sprinting out for some easy fast break buckets.

What type of improvement can we expect?

This is such a loaded question, and one which is almost impossible to really tell.  The big x-factor is how are the abilities of the other guys around them going to contribute to their improvement and relative efficiency.  But there are some things we do know.

- First, Wayns really isn’t going to play that much more than he did last year.  He played 75% of the possible minutes available, and he took 25.9% of our team’s shots while on the floor.  His minutes will increase, but I just don’t see his %shots increasing by that much.  In the Jay Wright era only 3 players have taken more than 30% of the team’s shots: ’06 Foye – 32.9%, ’06 Ray – 31.9% & ’07 Sumpter 30.2%.  Even Scottie never took more than 30% of the team’s shots.  So, in short I actually believe Wayns’ shot% will hold steady or even decrease.  I really believe he is our most pure point guard we have ever had.  If we pick up the tempo this year I believe Wayns will be looking to distribute more and more, but if we slow it down again than and only then will his shot% go up.  That will not be good for our team.

- I think Yarou is our most important player this season, but I have no idea what to expect from him either.  I think we all can agree that if Yarou has a good year, our team will have a good year.  Even if Yarou seemed to struggle from the field he did make improvements.  He improved both his offensive and defensive rebounding rates.

 OR%                 DR%

’10 - 12.7%        ’10 – 14.7

’11 – 13.4%        ’11 – 20.7%

He greatly reduced his TORate from 25.6% to 16.0% of his possessions.  Defensively, he had a lower fouls committed/per 40 minute rate: 6.3 – 4.9 & on the other side of the foul line equation he maintained his FTRate while increasing the number of shots he took – although his FTRate is ok, this is definitely an area for improvement.  The biggest thing is that he needs more minutes.  He played 60% of the possible minutes, and I think the magic number is 70%.  I think he will continue to develop down-low, but as it stands we need all the other things he brings to the table.

- I talked a decent amount about Cheek earlier, so I am going to focus on the area outside of the numbers for him.  It is not secret that I have been lukewarm towards Cheek thus far in his tenure.  He frustrates me because I KNOW he can be better.  The bigger question is what is his role going to be.  Is he our number 2, 3 or 4^th option offensively?  He has the talent to be the number 2, but he tries to play like the number 1 – which he isn’t mostly because he cannot create a shot for himself in the half court.  I also, am unsure about his overall attitude.  I don’t think he has a bad attitude, but how is he going to react to one of these Freshmen stepping up or even if Bell steps up.  Cheek will improve his skills, but his bigger challenge is in figuring out what his role is and executing it.

Identity Crisis

Few people would argue over the last several weeks, that the season is either slipping away or has entirely fallen off the cliff.  We could debate all we want to about which one really is the case, but that would be neither fruitful nor fun.  The second thing that we can all agree on is that something needs to change with this team, something my good friend from the lower west coast and I discussed over lunch this afternoon.  Although we could have another less fruitful but potentially more fun argument over the details of the changes each of us feel need to happen, we can probably agree that bigger picture things need to be addressed.

Where to begin?  I could sit here and say something like: we need to take better shots on offense.  We have a solid OR%, but we need to do a better job of getting to the charity stripe and not settling for jumpers.  On defense we need to force more turnovers, get back on defense better during transition, and not give up so many easy looks.

All of these things are true, and I am sure there a several other changes other people have observed which are equally correct, but that is a lot of changes.  Is the answer just a tweak here, an adjustment there and a re-focus over there?

I believe the problems are more systemic than these simple adjustments, not that these are always simple in and of themselves or in combination.  I am not insinuating that it is an overall systemic problem with the program or overall coaching and recruiting aspects of our team.  I think the real issue at play is an identity crisis.

You can call it what you want, and everyone has their own definition:  chemistry, mojo, heart, attitude, gumption, toughness, camaraderie, maturity, ‘it’, killer instinct, leadership, and hundreds of others.  I just happen to believe identity encompasses all of those extra characteristics about players and a team that we just don’t have.  How many times have you seen someone smile this year?  Who is our leader, Fisher?  When was the last time you saw him get on anyone for not playing defense?  Can you actually see him ever getting on his teammates for not practicing hard?  How about Stokes?  Maybe, but it seems more like the team follows Fisher’s lead.  Are we a defensive team or an offensive team?  Is Pena really our 3rd option, or do we just not have anyone else who can step up?  Our pace is generally pedestrian, why is that?  Can we actually shoot 3's?  Why can't we run the 1-2-2 press like we have in past years?  When will James Bell end up suffocating Cheek with his pillow case for taking up all his playing time?  Better yet, why hasn't Fisher/Stokes/Pena gotten in either Jay's ear or Cheek's face about him taking all these stupid shots while he is on the floor?  Too many questions, and the answer are, well, scary.

So here we are, one more regular season game left, and we don’t even know what type of team we are.  The question now becomes, is there anything we can do about it?  Most of you, myself included, are more or less resigned to the fact that the answer is pretty much, no.  But that does not mean we shouldn’t try.  And if the answer is that there is no answer really, then we have two options.  Keep playing they way we have been, same style, same line ups and pray to God, Jesus, Mohammad, Allah, Yahweh, Buddha, Osiris, and every other God all at the same time hoping something clicks.  Or we have option B:  let’s try something a little different maybe even crazy.

Why not?  The season is pretty much over.  It is not like on Saturday, we are going to only take good shots, create a ton of turnovers, and get the FT line on almost every possession.  And in order to do any of those things we would need all if not 1 of the following to happen: Yarou to develop a killer jump hook, Cheek to start hitting shots at a 60% clip, Pena to not miss a mid-range jumper the rest of the year, Wayns to develop an extra gear where no one can stay in front of him, and Stokes to start hitting from the opposite foul line.  Not going to happen. 

So, here is what I propose, and I can’t believe I am actually saying this.  I want fewer minutes from Fisher, Stokes, & Pena.  I want more minutes from Cheek, Armwood, Sutton & Bell.  Hold on it gets better or worse depending on how far from the cliff we are in your opinion.  For 5 minutes each half, right around the 10 minute mark (so maybe 12-7), I want a line up of Sutton, Armwood, Bell, Cheek & Wayns.  I don’t even want to run the 1-2-2.  I want full court 40 minutes of hell style, where we just run all over the floor.  Offensively, I want the same thing.  Pure reckless abandon.  I want Cheek chucking up as many shots as he wants, not like we really have to beg him to do that now do we.  I want Bell green lighted once he steps over the half court line, and I want Wayns putting his head down going 1 on 3 in transition.  Ok, so I don’t really want all the recklessness.  Calm down Todd, but I do want energy and enthusiasm.  I want some excitement and good forbid some toughness.  I want Stokes, Fisher, and Pena to get some rest and STAND UP AND CHEER for the second unit while they are on the bench.

Or, how about force feeding Yarou the rock down low until he either vomits or passes out.  Give him a guaranteed touch in the high to mid post on every single possession he is on the floor.  I’m not talking about touches after penetration by Wayns or Fisher, either.  Straight up, move your ass into the paint, waive your hands for the pass, and go to work.  He can pass back out if he wants or he can start learning how to abuse people down low.  I’m totally fine with this approach as well.  I just need something different.  If I am calling for Cheek to get more minutes, I think we all know that I am clearly camping out inside the panic room with Jodie Foster.

In short, I want to Jay to say ok.  We are in trouble right now.  We are going to change it up.  From now on we are going to be X.  You name it, something different but importantly we are going to be at least something other than the overrated team that just never figured it out.

These are pure and total pipe dreams though.  Jay will not budge this late in the season from what we have been doing all year.  It would take drastic injuries or a suspension for Jay to take a radical approach.  But the time for sticking with the game plan and making small adjustments each game and half is long gone.  We have been exposed for being a team that really doesn’t understand what it needs to do to win.  We have been exposed as fragile in demeanor and a team that lacks energy and toughness. 

I came across this quote from someone at work today. (you know the people who put these on the bottom of their email that they send you – why do people do this?)  Anyway, it sums up the issue about our team very succinctly for me. 

Life isn’t about finding yourself.  Life is about creating yourself. – George Bernard Shaw

We clearly are not going to find an identity now, but that doesn’t mean we can’t get to work on creating one.

The Sun Also Rises

I have been a little weak on content these past couple of weeks, but I promise next week you will not be disappointed.  In honor of keeping my personal goal of at least 2 posts a week, I am here to provide you with a sneak preview of the content in the week ahead.  And of course some random musings and stats.

Saturday at 2:00 we take on St. John's.  Quick note on St. John’s: They take only 23% of their shots from 3 & their opponents take almost 40% of their shots from 3.  That difference is absolutely amazing, and frankly I really don’t know what the hell it means, do you?  So combine that number with the pace St. John’s plays 66.6 possessions a game (pretty much exactly the D1 average – so not that fast) and the difference in shot attempts becomes even more startling.  If the pace was really high, I could imagine St. John’s running down the court creating TO’s and the other time being rushed and just chucking it (which is what 40% of shots from 3’s really is).  But I just don’t know.  I guess we will find out Saturday.  End quick, err medium note.

So, judging from a lot of the reactions going on in the comment threads on the other Nova blogs, the fan base is clearly circling this game as a must win, a season saver, and or a measuring stick for our overall progress.  I have to agree, but like me I also disagree.  There are no real must win games, except for the obvious one and done games like the tourney.  It always feels like it, but you know what? Let's just say we lose on Sat.  Guess what?  We are still going to play the rest of the games on our schedule.  We are still going to get into the Tournament.  As far as our seeding is concerned, all of these games are must wins and important games, but life and the season will continue.  The sun also rises.

Currently, Joe – I hate Villanova – Lunardi has us as a 4 seed.  I think that is about right, but I could see us currently as also a 5 seed.  Right now I think we are better than the 6 seeds (West Virginia, St. John’s, Missouri, Texas A&M), but we could slide down to one of those spots with a less than stellar finish to our season and a poor showing in the BE tourney.  The only way I see us sliding lower/worse than a 6^th seed would be if we lose out, and also lose to a Rutgers type in the opening game of the BE tourney.  I personally do not think that will happen, but the rest of you are entitled to your opinions.

Speaking of opinions, back to the comment boards.  The last couple of days there have been 2 much discussed topics.  End of game execution & playing time/rotation/and distribution of minutes.  I thought both of these would be excellent topics for me to research and write about.  Problem is they happen to be very in depth researching topics, and I have failed to finish them in time.  That’s why there is next week, and the sun also rises.

End of game execution:  A lot of NBA stats blogs/websites talk about clutch minutes, points, shots, %, etc.  They define it generally as something like this: clutch minutes = less than 3 minutes to go in a game when you are either up or down by so many points – 3 maybe 5? (I’m too lazy to actually look it up right now, and it’s not really important for our discussion)  I thought that approach would be a) too narrow – the NBA has longer games and more games which makes these stats more relevant & b) way too time consuming. 

So, I choose to look at the 9 games in which our margin of defeat or victory was less than or equal to 5 points.  We are 4-5 in these types of games.  W’s = La Salle, Temple, DePaul, Seton Hall.  L’s = Pitt, G’Town, UCONN, Syracuse, Rutgers.  Sorry for bringing that last one back into your memory, by the way the stats for Rutgers in the last 5 minutes are retarded.  They had an offensive rating of 263.93!!!!  So in 100 poss they would score 263 points.  On the season Rutgers rating is 106.6.  There are some very, very interesting stats from these games.  By the way I am looking at how we do as a team and as individuals in the last 5 minutes of these games.

Lineups/Rotation/Minutes Played:  First, now that Stokes is back you are going to see a much more steady rotation from Jay.  Last game was his first game back, so the minutes were all out of sorts.  So, what I plan on doing with this post is figuring out who I want to play how many minutes a game.  Then I am going to figure out who I want to play with whom and for how long (rotation).  Once I have my minutes and rotations set, I can then create a hypothetical team, and I can take a look at how they will produce.  This is a much more subjective post, and I know from the comment threads that there is a lot disagreement about who should be playing more minutes, etc.  And as you can tell, I haven’t fully developed this idea, and I may even scratch it.  Hopefully Saturday will give me some inspiration.

Villanova University Master Plan:  Last Tuesday, sorry two Tuesdays ago, I attended an Alumni event in DC where I live.  Father Donahue presented the Villanova University Strategic plan, well he talked about unveiling it and really just gave a heart pulling plea for money.  That’s fine, that’s what these event are all about.  And I thoroughly enjoyed the open bar and food, along with the good company.  However, in the presentation he showed some renderings of some of the proposed buildings and development that the University WANTS to do. (I want to stress that because this is a long way off, and there are many hurdles that must be jumped, ahem Radnor’s blessing) This got me curious, so I checked out the Villanova University Master Plan.  I am in the progress of getting my master’s in Urban Planning, so I obviously enjoy this stuff.  I plan on posting my thoughts about the Master Plan and the proposed development on our campus.  But for those who do not know, the big proposed development is… housing, specifically senior housing (who knows how many seniors will have to live there, ex: if 50% of the rooms are occupied by seniors, does that count as senior housing?  Or do all the rooms have to be occupied by seniors?) ALL ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF LANCASTER.  Yeah, that’s right, where the parking lots are.  I still don’t know exactly how I feel about it.  It will also include a performing arts center, and some shops, and stores and a completely retooled streetscape along Lancaster.

There it is: your week ahead preview.  For the record, I am really feeling pretty good about the game Saturday.  Maybe I’m naïve, or a homer, but I still feel like this team is growing.  We are in a rough patch, for sure, but we are young and talented.  The key is for us is to make sure everyone knows what role they are and then to execute it.  We have the pieces to the puzzle but they are not in the right place at the moment.  And for all of you who think the sun has set on this team (you probably would have stopped reading this lousy blog then), well you know what I would tell.

Syracuse Differential Graph & Observations

Last Friday, I did a guest post on the Nova Blog about what missing Corey Stokes means to our team, (note:  it does not include stats from the DePaul game).  So if you missed that here is the link: here.

Also, I am going to try after every game and provide the Differential graph along with 5 notes/observations.  They will be tied to the game, but they also might be more along the lines of current trends and issues that I have discussed earlier in the season.  So, you should still obviously continue to check out Villanova by the Numbers for your typical tempo-free analysis of each game.

Observations

1. Armwood is the man.  He got his first double double of his career and he will likely get many more of those in the next several years here at Nova.  He is the type of player who everyone on other teams hates because he has an attitude, some nastiness, and does all of the dirty work.  I originally believed Jay included him in the starting line up for these characteristics that he possesses, but now I believe there is another reason.  It is clear from the games that he has a great attitude in my opinion:  tough, fearless, and selfless.  He also is very vocal.  So next year who will be the leader of this team?  I think Armwood is clearly the one I want it to be, and I think Jay does to.  So by playing him and starting him, he has created a role for him on our team, gained the respect of the older players and more importantly the younger players.  As long as Armwood emerges as our unquestioned leader next year, we will be a much more mentally and physically tough team.  Example:  Near the end of the game in a big spot Armwood stepped up to the line to hit 2.  Didn’t you just know he was going to drill those?

2. Cheek.  Why is it that Cheek continues to see extensive minutes?  Last night he went 2-9, and took 39% of the teams shots while he was on the floor!  Are you serious?  39%?  For anyone out there who thinks, hey Cheek just needs to get his confidence back, you are crazy.  If taking 39% of a teams shots while your on the floor when you had made only 1 FG in the last 3 games isn’t confident, then I don’t know what is.  Talent and brains not confidence is the issue.  Is he a jump shooter or a slasher?  We see his body and say slasher and a scorer, yet rarely does he do these things.  Still he is taking over 40% of his shot attempts from 3.  He also has a very long release which I noticed last night.  Translation:  he is not a spot up shooter, nor do I think he can come off of screens that well.  His best shot is when he is on the dribble, and that is something I do not want to see him do.  However, I have a theory why he gets the minutes he does.  Cheek is from where?  New Jersey, right?  He was an All-American there, from a pretty good program.  If we are going to be successful recruiting, especially with Lavin at St. John’s (By the way for everyone giving Lavin all of this credit this year:  St John’s is the 2^nd, I repeat 2^nd most experienced team in the COUNTRY.  So yes, Lavin has done well, but if there was ever a year St. John’s would do well it would be when they have a very old experienced team) we need to keep getting top Jersey kids.  Cheek being a very good HS player means that he is looked up to in the state, by younger kids in his program and by other players who played against/watched him.  They will pay attention to Nova games, and will eventually become big fans and want to go to Nova as long as Cheek gets PT.  Jay must be thinking about this because there is no other explanation that I can think of that explains Cheeks continued floor time.

3. Stokes & Fisher:  So, as I talked about in my guest post, we need Stokes on offense.  He provides stability and he is a senior who makes good decisions.  Fisher is still our best player, but sometimes he is just off.  Last night was one of those days.  Here is the thing about these 2 players in my mind.  Fisher is the heart of our team.  When he is off, everything else seems to go kind of crazy, and he has yet shown the real leadership and also ability to get everyone else going even if he isn’t.  You can see it when he came to the bench last night, he wasn’t terribly upset but just shaking his head and he seemed frustrated.  (And in case you were wondering, I am not a body language expert for the Bill O'Reilly show.  Really how stupid is that?)   We need him to shake off bad starts, bad calls, and get people involved and make smart decisions.  As far as Stokes is concerned, he feeds off of energy but he doesn’t create it.  Everytime we had a big defensive play, he would come down and drill a shot, but if we needed him to hit a real big time shot while the chips were down, I don’t think he makes those.

4. Wayns.  With Armwood’s move into the starting line up and Jay’s insistence on playing Cheek around 20 minutes a game, Wayns has been hurt the most.  His minutes in BE play before Marquette – which marked the beginning of Armwood’s rise in PT – were 77.7% of minutes played.  Since Marquette and excluding the games Stokes missed (because clearly he got some of Stokes minutes while he was hurt) Wayns is playing only 62.5% of available minutes.  Also, since the Marquette game he has an eFG of 35.5%, which is very, very low.  I would need to look more in depth into what exactly has changed for Wayns, but I think he is struggling in his new role.  I like Armwood in the starting line up, but we need Wayns.  He needs more minutes not less.

5. Yarou – After the DePaul game I looked at the box score and saw that Yarou – who was not in foul trouble – only played 26 minutes.  He had 8 of our teams 15 offensive rebounds, and watching the first 5 minutes of the game (which I did before going to help a friend move) he was unstoppable down low.  It was clear they would not be able to keep him off the glass.  Flash forward to the game last night, and Yarou only played 17 minutes – again not in foul trouble.  This past game Jay went with a lot of different looks, and I think that in the next 2 games or so we are going to see a lot more consistency in the rotations now that Stokes is back.  However, we need Yarou.  I can’t think of why he only got 26 and 17 minutes in back to back games without foul trouble.

V is for Valentine

Dear Jay,

It’s been 9 years since we began our relationship.  During that time I have only questioned you on a couple of occasions, but each time I did I realized that you were good enough for me.  You may not always have the best game plans, but you are always the sexiest man in the room.  You have brought sound basketball into my life, and your 12-6 tournament record with 4 Sweet 16’s; 2 Elite 8’s, and of course 1 Final Four fills the cockles of my heart with warmth.

- Yours in Basketball

Dear C-Fish,

My how the time has passed.  4 years ago you stepped on campus and showed flashes of your offensive ability.  Although at times throughout these years, I have wanted you to stick up for me more – read: play some actual defense – you have proved yourself a beautiful lover – read talented offensive player.  I need you to continue to be strong and lead Corey.  I know our time left is short, but I just want you to know I treasure every moment.

- Yours in Offensive Basketball

Dear Pena,

Your soft shooting touch reminds me of past lovers.  Consistently, when you have been needed you have been there, and for that I will always be grateful.  Our time is numbered now Antonio, but you will now share a place in my heart alongside other undersized big men.

- Yours in the High Post

Dear Stokes,

We had such high hopes for our future together back in your younger days.  Although, I know that you will always leave me wanting more, and at times you have left me hung out to dry – 2 for 16 against Providence.  But we both know that we need each other even if that means our relationship is doomed.  Let’s enjoy our what time we have left and make the best of it.

- Yours From Behind the Arch

Dear Sutton,

I can’t explain it, but I like you.  Maybe it is your attractive block rate – 10.5 – or your very high FTrate – 120.7 or your awkward looking nose.  Either way I look forward to seeing where our relationship goes.  We should remain friends for now, but in the future I am excited to spend more time together.

- Yours From the Block Party

Dear Armwood,

In the short time we have known each other; I have become open to giving you my whole heart.  It is mine for now, but as you continue to crack people upside the head, elegantly swipe boards on both ends, and blossom into our unquestioned emotional leader the butterflies will continue to swirl around in my stomach.  When and if you develop the soft lovers mid range touch, I will gladly give myself to you for a chance to have a versatile swingman.

- Yours From the Wing

Dear Maalik,

I’m yours.  You are so giving – 34.3 ARate! – and you never shy away from those challenging moments every relationship has.  Don’t speak, don’t say a word, just continue to play and I will be there.

- Totally Yours Driving in the Lane

Dear Yarou,

God forbid Maalik does not accept my love, you can have me.  We have so much more time together with you pulling down boards – 13.4 OR% & 19.5 DR% - that I just can’t get enough.  I always enjoy our time on the dance floor - great footwork for a big man – and I look forward to our time at the Big Dance later this year.

- Yours in the Paint

Dear Bell,

We are in the ‘just getting to know you stage’ and I am very happy with a first couple of dates so far.  We need more time together – playing only 14.4% of minutes so far – but I can already tell you have all the moves.  I don’t know if I can wait for next year though, so let’s make the most of this small window of opportunity this year and see where it takes us.

- Yours Off the Bench

Dear Cheek,

Breaking up is always hard to do.  But until you mature and show that your are ready for a serious relationship – for starters you could take less 3’s, currently taking 47% of his shots from behind the arc, or you could not make selfish decisions, like taking the last shot off balance and ill-timed in 2 games!.  So until you show me that you are capable of thinking about us and not you then we should just be friends.  Maybe in a year or two when you have realized what you have lost, then you can grow up and we can spend more time together.

- Yours ON the Bench

Style Points

First, I have been sick all week with the Flu, and so I have not been as active researching on here as I would like to be.  I apologize to all my adoring fans.  Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, I feel the need to ATTEMPT and quell the anger that ensued in my inbox box from Nova friends after the [choose your own adjective] that occurred in the great shitty state of New Jersey on Wednesday, although I don’t think I can.  Third, if you haven’t noticed, I created an additional page on the site that shows the differential graphs from all of our games.  Check them out.

I have some answers, I think.  Well, maybe just some rationale which you can take or leave.  But here it is.  The most defining characteristic both offensively and defensively for THIS team – unlike other Nova teams – is the number of 3 pt. shot attempts.  Although, you could argue that it has always defined us, but I am rambling now.  Question:  What the f%@*) are you talking about?

Answer:  A lot of times you will hear statements such as:  “Nova lives and dies by the 3.”  And or some silly announcers or commentators will highlight our 3 pt. shooting as the key to the game or as a focus of their broadcast.  Laziness pure and simple, because this could never be more inaccurate.  On the season, we have attempted 31% of our total shot attempts from 3.  Which ranks us 211^th (according to kenpom) in the country.  This style of passing up on 3’s is the lynch pin in understanding our team offensively.  You can see the effects trickle into other statistical categories.  Listed below is a retrospective look at how we compare stylistically with past Nova teams.

	3PA/FGA		A/FGM		FTA/FGA
2011	31.4		58.9		44.1
2010	34.5		49.9		43.9
2009	32		55.8		41.9
2008	34.9		53.7		38.9
2007	39.1		54.5		41.7
2006	39.6		49.8		36.9
2005	34		48.1		37.6
2004	36.6		57.5		39.1

We take fewer 3’s than any Nova team since 04.  Only in 09 did we depend almost as less on the 3 for our offense.  So if you pass on 3’s that means you are getting penetration.  We can see that in our A/FGM rate and also in our FTrate.  FTrate is the best in this time frame and so is our A/FGM.  Translation: we are a pretty damn efficient offense, and an offense that is consistent.  Because we have and have consistently had a high FT% getting to the line will result in consistent points.  Additionally, by NOT relying on our outside shooting we can easily avoid shooting slumps that can cause us to loose (well sort of so long as Stokes doesn’t go 1-11 or some shit – hey Corey, remember feet set, stationary shots, shhh don’t tell anybody).  Currently, we are ranked 11^th nationally in offensive efficiency, and also we have had an ORtg over 100 in every game but 3 (all losses – Tenn, UCONN, Providence).  Even in those games we had a rating in the 90’s, not good but you can win games with ratings in the 90’s if you have a solid defense.  We have also had 9 games where we had an ORtg above 120 this season, losing once to RU.  Loosing with an ORtg of above 120 to RU is crazy, absolutely crazy.

So what about defense?  Here is the lists’ including our opponents 3FG%, which I thought was interesting.

	3PA/FGA		A/FGM		FTA/FGA		3FG%
2011	35.5		59.4		33.6		30.0
2010	38.5		58.8		49.1		33.6
2009	41.2		61.2		38.8		33.6
2008	40.9		57.6		46.4		36.5
2007	40.2		56.0		42.0		35.2
2006	31.2		60.1		37.4		33.7
2005	33.5		60.4		38.6		31.8
2004	33.3		56.3		40.9		32.8

So our opponents don’t take many 3’s against us either, we don’t put them on the line, and they assist on a decent amount of buckets.  The Assist stat is a little misleading here.  In my opinion you want the opponent to have a high assist to FG rate, and if you look at the 3 highest over this time span you will find our 3 best defensive teams – 09, 06, 05.  Each of those teams could defend every position individually so you needed good efficient offensive sets and team work to create a bucket.  I think the most telling stat is defensively our FTrate.  Look how low that is!  Maybe we are soft and we do not challenge at the rim?  Maybe we just play very good defense and don’t foul.  I think it reflects a lack of grit and toughness inside.  Overall, a low FTA/FGA defensively is never a terrible thing, but I think we could handle fouling a little bit more especially with our depth.  All in all the numbers suggest we are a better defensive team then what we see on TV.  What gives?

Rationale:  Here is my take away and final conclusion, and for the first time I am putting forth a HIGHLY SUBJECTIVE explanation.  Take it or leave it.

Because offensively we do not attempt as many 3’s we have developed a consistent efficient offense.  However, this offense is not a quick strike offense, nor an offense that can in a matter of minutes put up a 12 or 15 point run.  If you take a look at many of the differential graphs, shameless plug, you can see that we simply play more efficiently than our opponents and only rarely do we throw in a slow methodical 10 point run.  So even though we are a solid offensive team, do we strike any fear into the other team?  Do we score so easily and quickly that we force the other team to take bad shots?  I think because we get fouled so often (FTrate) the attitude from the other team is that they simply bailed us out.  They got a call, or a lucky break.  Finally, I have seen myself and also read on other blogs about the seemingly ‘bored’ fans at games.  I don’t know about you but isn’t the loudest part of the game after a big time 3 was hit to either tie a game, start a comeback, or put the nail in the coffin.  We don’t have as many of those moments in our games.  Our offense consists of getting to the line.  I don’t scream every time Wayns hits a FT, but maybe we should.  (Still no excuse for the fans to be so out of it at games)

All of this translates then into our defensive numbers.  Defensively, we have a bad tendency which my father always talks about and very much dislikes.  In our half court defense we try to defend the Entire half court, far outside the 3 pt. line.  This results in few 3 point attempts by our opponents, but they can penetrate and dish and get easier buckets.  We have already discussed a lot this year about our inability to keep our opponents in front of us.  This is why we have actually used the 2-3 zone, and why we have seen Armwood enter the starting line-up.  We can’t stop penetration by teams with any type of quick PG.  And we don’t scare teams offensively enough to force them into bad possessions on the other end.  And we give up easier buckets than we should off of their penetration.  The final nail in the coffin is our paltry TO% on defense which is 18.8%.  That puts us at 261^st.  Yuck.  This again stops us from making any extended runs, and allows our opponents to have more possessions. 

In conclusion, maybe, just maybe we actually need to live and die by the 3 a little more.  Cheek I don’t mean you, son.