What happened these last 6 months? After completely mailing in the last 10 games of the season, we then had to sit through several months of chaos with the whole “I want as much money as possible and I don’t care about anyone else” ordeal. Otherwise know as college re-alignment.
But here we are. Big East media day for football in 2013, I mean for this upcoming basketball season, happened earlier in the week, and Hoops Mania is set for tonight. Wait, why is the annual Blue & White game on Saturday at 11:30 AM? Whatever, the times are a changin’, and so it is time to sit down and think about this upcoming season.
The last time I felt so unsure about an upcoming season was in 2008, when all we really knew was that Scottie had a good Freshman year and we had some young good recruits coming in, but we did not know what to really expect – this was before Dante became a machine. I think it is pretty clear right now at this moment that Wayns, Yarou & Cheek as the 3 elder statesmen are going to be the reason we succeed or fail. It’s time to take a closer look.
Why did it seem like Cheek, Wayns & Yarou all took a step back last year?
First I think it is important to point out that the whole team seemed to take a step back last year. A quick look back at the numbers from 2 years ago to last year shows that every single player not named Stokes or Armwood had a lower eFG% than the year prior. That’s crazy! Here take a look:
Fisher | eFG% | %Shts |
'10 | 51.0 | 22.8 |
'11 | 48.5 | 26.1 |
Stokes | ||
'10 | 54.0 | 19.4 |
'11 | 58.2 | 22.8 |
Pena | ||
'10 | 57.7 | 18.1 |
'11 | 50.6 | 17.8 |
Wayns | ||
'10 | 48.3 | 24.0 |
'11 | 44.5 | 25.9 |
Yarou | ||
'10 | 58.3 | 12.9 |
'11 | 49.8 | 18.4 |
Cheek | ||
'10 | 50.4 | 19.5 |
‘11 | 43.6 | 19.2 |
Armwood | ||
'10 | 48.1 | 11.2 |
'11 | 49.1 | 7.4 |
I don’t think I would have ever guessed that Scottie’s impact on our team offensively was THAT great. But these numbers seem to suggest that he really allowed for everyone to get easier and better looks. Look closely at Yarou, Pena & Cheek. They had their eFG% drop by 7, 9, and 7 %pts. respectively. That is a huge drop-off. Why did this happen?
- Wayns carried a larger bulk of the offense last year, and so his dip stems from having to take more shots – he will shoot better from 3 this year I promise. He did also post an ARate of 32.4 which is the highest ARate in the Jay Wright era. At the end of the day, and at the end of the shot clock, we relied on him too much as a shooter.
- Yarou also took a larger role in the offense, increasing his shot output by almost 6%, so that explains some of the decrease in efficiency but not all. He either did not get as many quality opportunities as he had last year or he simply shot terribly and made poor decisions. Probably a little of both, but I’m siding on the lack of quality opportunities
- Cheek took almost the same amount of shots, but saw his eFG drop significantly. The reason for his drop-off is very simple. In 2010, only 33% of Cheek’s shot attempts were from 3 – which he hit at a 31% rate – and he also had a very respectable 40.6 FTRate. In 2011 he settled for jumpers pure and simple. 50% of his shot attempts were from 3 – which he hit at a 30% clip – and he had an FTRate of only 28?!?! Also, it is not hard to see that Cheek is much better in transition than in the half court. We all know how our offense slowed to a halt last year, and as a result, the slow pace highlighted the weaknesses in Cheek’s game. I think he CAN improve, but he has some work to do other than sprinting out for some easy fast break buckets.
What type of improvement can we expect?
This is such a loaded question, and one which is almost impossible to really tell. The big x-factor is how are the abilities of the other guys around them going to contribute to their improvement and relative efficiency. But there are some things we do know.
- First, Wayns really isn’t going to play that much more than he did last year. He played 75% of the possible minutes available, and he took 25.9% of our team’s shots while on the floor. His minutes will increase, but I just don’t see his %shots increasing by that much. In the Jay Wright era only 3 players have taken more than 30% of the team’s shots: ’06 Foye – 32.9%, ’06 Ray – 31.9% & ’07 Sumpter 30.2%. Even Scottie never took more than 30% of the team’s shots. So, in short I actually believe Wayns’ shot% will hold steady or even decrease. I really believe he is our most pure point guard we have ever had. If we pick up the tempo this year I believe Wayns will be looking to distribute more and more, but if we slow it down again than and only then will his shot% go up. That will not be good for our team.
- I think Yarou is our most important player this season, but I have no idea what to expect from him either. I think we all can agree that if Yarou has a good year, our team will have a good year. Even if Yarou seemed to struggle from the field he did make improvements. He improved both his offensive and defensive rebounding rates.
OR% DR%
’10 - 12.7% ’10 – 14.7
’11 – 13.4% ’11 – 20.7%
He greatly reduced his TORate from 25.6% to 16.0% of his possessions. Defensively, he had a lower fouls committed/per 40 minute rate: 6.3 – 4.9 & on the other side of the foul line equation he maintained his FTRate while increasing the number of shots he took – although his FTRate is ok, this is definitely an area for improvement. The biggest thing is that he needs more minutes. He played 60% of the possible minutes, and I think the magic number is 70%. I think he will continue to develop down-low, but as it stands we need all the other things he brings to the table.
- I talked a decent amount about Cheek earlier, so I am going to focus on the area outside of the numbers for him. It is not secret that I have been lukewarm towards Cheek thus far in his tenure. He frustrates me because I KNOW he can be better. The bigger question is what is his role going to be. Is he our number 2, 3 or 4th option offensively? He has the talent to be the number 2, but he tries to play like the number 1 – which he isn’t mostly because he cannot create a shot for himself in the half court. I also, am unsure about his overall attitude. I don’t think he has a bad attitude, but how is he going to react to one of these Freshmen stepping up or even if Bell steps up. Cheek will improve his skills, but his bigger challenge is in figuring out what his role is and executing it.
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