Season Preview Part II: Sweating the Close Stuff

Created by my good friend Eliot Zuniga. www.eliotzuniga.webs.com

 Game number II is already here as Nova begins Big 5 play tonight against LaSalle, who played us really tough last year.  Like most of you this will be the first time I will get a look at all of our Freshmen.  There are a decent amount of question marks about this team.  We know a good amount about our top 3 players, but the rest and how they fit in are obviously going to be crucial as the season progresses.

If you haven’t taken a look around at some of the new features of the site check them out.  During the season I will update the player & team stats at least once a week, and I will have the game differential charts up shortly after every game.  The Quick Hitters section (not sure I like the name, maybe Mid-Range Jumpers?) is a new section where I will add short little opinion rants or interesting stats about our team as the season goes on.  The main page will continue with the longer more research oriented content, and as some of my more dedicated readers have suggested, I will put up a glossary of terms soon.  For now though check out kenpom.com for all your stat definition questions.

If you missed the first part of the season preview, where I discuss the potential development of our 3 core returning players: Wayns, Cheek, & Yarou, here it is.  Also, on the Quick Hitters page I have 5 questions I am hoping to begin to find answers to by watching tonight’s game.

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One of the biggest question marks for this upcoming year will be how we handle close games.  As a team without any Seniors and a team that will rely on a lot of young players, we are probably going to be a little inconsistent.  We have talent, but we have a lot of players playing together for the first time and many will find themselves in unfamiliar roles.  In almost any season close games are important.  How many times have you seen a team that was young and talented but not quite good enough and seen the stat flashed on the screen that they have lost 7 games by a combined 15 pts?  At least 3 times a season. So, how we perform in those games WILL define our season.  As usual let’s take a look at last season.

Here is how our win to loss breakdown based on where we stood with 5 minutes remeaining.

	Record	Home	Away
10+ pts @5	14-1	11-0	3-1
0 > 10 pts @5	6-3	2-0	4-3
0 > -10 pts @5	1-5	0-3	1-2
-10 pts @5	0-3	0-1	0-2

So we had only 1 come from behind win in the last 5 minutes, and we gave up 3 games when we were leading by less than 10.  On its face this does not seem too bad.  However, our point differential in games we were leading by less than 10 was -6, and our point differential in games we were losing by less than 10 was -5.  In games when either leading or losing by 10, we were either outscored in the last 5 minutes, or scored equally with our opponent, or outscored our opponent by only 1 pt. (DePaul) in 10 of those 15 games.  Wow, we sucked in close games last year, didn’t we?

The picture continues to get a little grimmer when you look at how we preformed in games where we were leading or losing by 5 pts or less.

Record Home Away 0 >  5 pts. @5 3-3 2-0 1-3 -5 > 0 pts. @5 1-2 0-2 1-0

I took a look at the play in 10 of those 15 games – 5 wins & 5 losses - where we were either leading or losing by 10, and here is what I found. 

These are our offensive numbers by the 4 factors for wins & losses, which is which?

	A	B
eFG	50.0%	61.3%
OR%	26.7%	53.8%
TO%	27.2%	18.9%
FTA/FGA	119.05	100

In both wins & losses we had an eFG% of above 50%, and also FTrate of above 100!!! That’s pretty f*ing good.  Oh, did I forget to mention that column A are our wins?  Could have been either, right?

And here is our defensive numbers in the 4 factors for wins & losses, which is which?

	A	B
eFG	33.9%	80.0%
OR%	31.8%	35.7%
TO%	14.9%	18.9%
FTA/FGA	74.19	93.33

Wow, do I need to point out which column are our wins and which are our losses?

So for all the talk about the offense and the “burn”, yuck – to be honest it did deserve our disgust - it was really our defense that let us down.   Losing Stokes, Fisher & Pena will change and possibly hurt our offense, but all 3 were average to below average defenders who played a lot of minutes in crunch time – I may even be a little nice with calling them average.  It is yet to be seen if the new comers are stalwart defenders, but they are long, should be full of enthusiasm and energy, and are most likely looking to please the coach to get extra pt.  Close games define any season, and one with as much uncertainty as this season, will mean we will probably be doing a lot of sweating this year.

Season Preview Part I: What Do We Really Know About This Season?

What happened these last 6 months?  After completely mailing in the last 10 games of the season, we then had to sit through several months of chaos with the whole “I want as much money as possible and I don’t care about anyone else” ordeal.  Otherwise know as college re-alignment.

But here we are.  Big East media day for football in 2013, I mean for this upcoming basketball season, happened earlier in the week, and Hoops Mania is set for tonight.  Wait, why is the annual Blue & White game on Saturday at 11:30 AM?  Whatever, the times are a changin’, and so it is time to sit down and think about this upcoming season.

The last time I felt so unsure about an upcoming season was in 2008, when all we really knew was that Scottie had a good Freshman year and we had some young good recruits coming in, but we did not know what to really expect – this was before Dante became a machine.  I think it is pretty clear right now at this moment that Wayns, Yarou & Cheek as the 3 elder statesmen are going to be the reason we succeed or fail.  It’s time to take a closer look.

Why did it seem like Cheek, Wayns & Yarou all took a step back last year?

First I think it is important to point out that the whole team seemed to take a step back last year.  A quick look back at the numbers from 2 years ago to last year shows that every single player not named Stokes or Armwood had a lower eFG% than the year prior.  That’s crazy!  Here take a look:

Fisher	eFG%	%Shts
'10	51.0	22.8
'11	48.5	26.1
Stokes
'10	54.0	19.4
'11	58.2	22.8
Pena
'10	57.7	18.1
'11	50.6	17.8
Wayns
'10	48.3	24.0
'11	44.5	25.9
Yarou
'10	58.3	12.9
'11	49.8	18.4
Cheek
'10	50.4	19.5
‘11	43.6	19.2
Armwood
'10	48.1	11.2
'11	49.1	7.4

I don’t think I would have ever guessed that Scottie’s impact on our team offensively was THAT great.  But these numbers seem to suggest that he really allowed for everyone to get easier and better looks.  Look closely at Yarou, Pena & Cheek.  They had their eFG% drop by 7, 9, and 7 %pts. respectively.  That is a huge drop-off.  Why did this happen?

- Wayns carried a larger bulk of the offense last year, and so his dip stems from having to take more shots – he will shoot better from 3 this year I promise.  He did also post an ARate of 32.4 which is the highest ARate in the Jay Wright era.  At the end of the day, and at the end of the shot clock, we relied on him too much as a shooter.

- Yarou also took a larger role in the offense, increasing his shot output by almost 6%, so that explains some of the decrease in efficiency but not all.  He either did not get as many quality opportunities as he had last year or he simply shot terribly and made poor decisions.  Probably a little of both, but I’m siding on the lack of quality opportunities

- Cheek took almost the same amount of shots, but saw his eFG drop significantly.  The reason for his drop-off is very simple.  In 2010, only 33% of Cheek’s shot attempts were from 3 – which he hit at a 31% rate – and he also had a very respectable 40.6 FTRate.  In 2011 he settled for jumpers pure and simple.  50% of his shot attempts were from 3 – which he hit at a 30% clip – and he had an FTRate of only 28?!?!  Also, it is not hard to see that Cheek is much better in transition than in the half court.  We all know how our offense slowed to a halt last year, and as a result, the slow pace highlighted the weaknesses in Cheek’s game.  I think he CAN improve, but he has some work to do other than sprinting out for some easy fast break buckets.

What type of improvement can we expect?

This is such a loaded question, and one which is almost impossible to really tell.  The big x-factor is how are the abilities of the other guys around them going to contribute to their improvement and relative efficiency.  But there are some things we do know.

- First, Wayns really isn’t going to play that much more than he did last year.  He played 75% of the possible minutes available, and he took 25.9% of our team’s shots while on the floor.  His minutes will increase, but I just don’t see his %shots increasing by that much.  In the Jay Wright era only 3 players have taken more than 30% of the team’s shots: ’06 Foye – 32.9%, ’06 Ray – 31.9% & ’07 Sumpter 30.2%.  Even Scottie never took more than 30% of the team’s shots.  So, in short I actually believe Wayns’ shot% will hold steady or even decrease.  I really believe he is our most pure point guard we have ever had.  If we pick up the tempo this year I believe Wayns will be looking to distribute more and more, but if we slow it down again than and only then will his shot% go up.  That will not be good for our team.

- I think Yarou is our most important player this season, but I have no idea what to expect from him either.  I think we all can agree that if Yarou has a good year, our team will have a good year.  Even if Yarou seemed to struggle from the field he did make improvements.  He improved both his offensive and defensive rebounding rates.

 OR%                 DR%

’10 - 12.7%        ’10 – 14.7

’11 – 13.4%        ’11 – 20.7%

He greatly reduced his TORate from 25.6% to 16.0% of his possessions.  Defensively, he had a lower fouls committed/per 40 minute rate: 6.3 – 4.9 & on the other side of the foul line equation he maintained his FTRate while increasing the number of shots he took – although his FTRate is ok, this is definitely an area for improvement.  The biggest thing is that he needs more minutes.  He played 60% of the possible minutes, and I think the magic number is 70%.  I think he will continue to develop down-low, but as it stands we need all the other things he brings to the table.

- I talked a decent amount about Cheek earlier, so I am going to focus on the area outside of the numbers for him.  It is not secret that I have been lukewarm towards Cheek thus far in his tenure.  He frustrates me because I KNOW he can be better.  The bigger question is what is his role going to be.  Is he our number 2, 3 or 4^th option offensively?  He has the talent to be the number 2, but he tries to play like the number 1 – which he isn’t mostly because he cannot create a shot for himself in the half court.  I also, am unsure about his overall attitude.  I don’t think he has a bad attitude, but how is he going to react to one of these Freshmen stepping up or even if Bell steps up.  Cheek will improve his skills, but his bigger challenge is in figuring out what his role is and executing it.

Identity Crisis

Few people would argue over the last several weeks, that the season is either slipping away or has entirely fallen off the cliff.  We could debate all we want to about which one really is the case, but that would be neither fruitful nor fun.  The second thing that we can all agree on is that something needs to change with this team, something my good friend from the lower west coast and I discussed over lunch this afternoon.  Although we could have another less fruitful but potentially more fun argument over the details of the changes each of us feel need to happen, we can probably agree that bigger picture things need to be addressed.

Where to begin?  I could sit here and say something like: we need to take better shots on offense.  We have a solid OR%, but we need to do a better job of getting to the charity stripe and not settling for jumpers.  On defense we need to force more turnovers, get back on defense better during transition, and not give up so many easy looks.

All of these things are true, and I am sure there a several other changes other people have observed which are equally correct, but that is a lot of changes.  Is the answer just a tweak here, an adjustment there and a re-focus over there?

I believe the problems are more systemic than these simple adjustments, not that these are always simple in and of themselves or in combination.  I am not insinuating that it is an overall systemic problem with the program or overall coaching and recruiting aspects of our team.  I think the real issue at play is an identity crisis.

You can call it what you want, and everyone has their own definition:  chemistry, mojo, heart, attitude, gumption, toughness, camaraderie, maturity, ‘it’, killer instinct, leadership, and hundreds of others.  I just happen to believe identity encompasses all of those extra characteristics about players and a team that we just don’t have.  How many times have you seen someone smile this year?  Who is our leader, Fisher?  When was the last time you saw him get on anyone for not playing defense?  Can you actually see him ever getting on his teammates for not practicing hard?  How about Stokes?  Maybe, but it seems more like the team follows Fisher’s lead.  Are we a defensive team or an offensive team?  Is Pena really our 3rd option, or do we just not have anyone else who can step up?  Our pace is generally pedestrian, why is that?  Can we actually shoot 3's?  Why can't we run the 1-2-2 press like we have in past years?  When will James Bell end up suffocating Cheek with his pillow case for taking up all his playing time?  Better yet, why hasn't Fisher/Stokes/Pena gotten in either Jay's ear or Cheek's face about him taking all these stupid shots while he is on the floor?  Too many questions, and the answer are, well, scary.

So here we are, one more regular season game left, and we don’t even know what type of team we are.  The question now becomes, is there anything we can do about it?  Most of you, myself included, are more or less resigned to the fact that the answer is pretty much, no.  But that does not mean we shouldn’t try.  And if the answer is that there is no answer really, then we have two options.  Keep playing they way we have been, same style, same line ups and pray to God, Jesus, Mohammad, Allah, Yahweh, Buddha, Osiris, and every other God all at the same time hoping something clicks.  Or we have option B:  let’s try something a little different maybe even crazy.

Why not?  The season is pretty much over.  It is not like on Saturday, we are going to only take good shots, create a ton of turnovers, and get the FT line on almost every possession.  And in order to do any of those things we would need all if not 1 of the following to happen: Yarou to develop a killer jump hook, Cheek to start hitting shots at a 60% clip, Pena to not miss a mid-range jumper the rest of the year, Wayns to develop an extra gear where no one can stay in front of him, and Stokes to start hitting from the opposite foul line.  Not going to happen. 

So, here is what I propose, and I can’t believe I am actually saying this.  I want fewer minutes from Fisher, Stokes, & Pena.  I want more minutes from Cheek, Armwood, Sutton & Bell.  Hold on it gets better or worse depending on how far from the cliff we are in your opinion.  For 5 minutes each half, right around the 10 minute mark (so maybe 12-7), I want a line up of Sutton, Armwood, Bell, Cheek & Wayns.  I don’t even want to run the 1-2-2.  I want full court 40 minutes of hell style, where we just run all over the floor.  Offensively, I want the same thing.  Pure reckless abandon.  I want Cheek chucking up as many shots as he wants, not like we really have to beg him to do that now do we.  I want Bell green lighted once he steps over the half court line, and I want Wayns putting his head down going 1 on 3 in transition.  Ok, so I don’t really want all the recklessness.  Calm down Todd, but I do want energy and enthusiasm.  I want some excitement and good forbid some toughness.  I want Stokes, Fisher, and Pena to get some rest and STAND UP AND CHEER for the second unit while they are on the bench.

Or, how about force feeding Yarou the rock down low until he either vomits or passes out.  Give him a guaranteed touch in the high to mid post on every single possession he is on the floor.  I’m not talking about touches after penetration by Wayns or Fisher, either.  Straight up, move your ass into the paint, waive your hands for the pass, and go to work.  He can pass back out if he wants or he can start learning how to abuse people down low.  I’m totally fine with this approach as well.  I just need something different.  If I am calling for Cheek to get more minutes, I think we all know that I am clearly camping out inside the panic room with Jodie Foster.

In short, I want to Jay to say ok.  We are in trouble right now.  We are going to change it up.  From now on we are going to be X.  You name it, something different but importantly we are going to be at least something other than the overrated team that just never figured it out.

These are pure and total pipe dreams though.  Jay will not budge this late in the season from what we have been doing all year.  It would take drastic injuries or a suspension for Jay to take a radical approach.  But the time for sticking with the game plan and making small adjustments each game and half is long gone.  We have been exposed for being a team that really doesn’t understand what it needs to do to win.  We have been exposed as fragile in demeanor and a team that lacks energy and toughness. 

I came across this quote from someone at work today. (you know the people who put these on the bottom of their email that they send you – why do people do this?)  Anyway, it sums up the issue about our team very succinctly for me. 

Life isn’t about finding yourself.  Life is about creating yourself. – George Bernard Shaw

We clearly are not going to find an identity now, but that doesn’t mean we can’t get to work on creating one.