The Best Game of the Year

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Maybe it is because I’m from the mid-west and because I applied to Marquette.  Maybe it is because Marquette is both very similar to us in terms of style and also in record, year after year.  Maybe it is because every game is always close.  Or maybe it is because the first Villanova game I ever attended was against Marquette AT Madison Square Garden.  A game in which Jason Fraser teased us with what could have been with a 13 point, 13 rebound, 2 block effort – it was also his first ever collegiate game.  And a game in which Dwyane Wade glided all over the court effortlessly in route to a 17 point, 5 rebound, 4 assist, 2 steal, and 1 block game himself, which is the most Dwayne Wade stat line ever.  In any event, the Marquette game is the one game I always look forward to.  So much so that when I have been asked over the past two weeks who Villanova’s next opponent is, my response has been “I think it’s Marquette.”  Even though I have been wrong about who we were going to play for the past 3 games.

            This year the game should not only be fun to watch, but its importance is abundantly clear.  As we sit just inside the bubble for now – Lunardi has us as one of the last four teams IN the tourney at the moment - a winnable game at home against a very good opponent is about as loaded with significance and meaning as a game can have.

            Taking a step back however, this game provides us with an opportunity to analyze an interesting philosophical basketball question.  What happens and who wins when one team is really great at stopping what the other team is outstanding at executing?  Basically it’s a situation where an unstoppable force meets an immovable object.

            While our offense continues to show signs of improvement, it should be no secret that our defense has carried us to our 8-6 record in Big East play, where we are tied for 7^th with Pitt and St. John’s.  Overall we have the 3^rd best defensive efficiency in the conference, and the key to our defensive improvement has been our 2 point FG% defense & our defensive rebounding.  In those categories we rank 1^st and 2^nd respectively in the Big East.  Hello unmovable object.

            On the flip side, Marquette comes in with a 10-3 record in the Big East, tied for 1^st in the conference alongside G’Town and Syracuse.  They have gotten to this point by having the 14^th best offense in the country and the 2^nd best offense in Big East play.  And wouldn’t you know it, but the reason for Marquette’s success on offense has been due to their Big East BEST 2 point FG% shooting and the 3^rd best Big East offensive rebounding.  Good afternoon, unstoppable force.

            Adding to the intrigue is that in other important categories neither team seems capable of exploiting the other’s weaknesses.  Take turnovers for example.  Villanova ranks 14^th offensively – meaning we cough the ball up a lot – but Marquette only ranks 10^th defensively at forcing turnovers.  Both teams also excel at getting to the line on offense as Villanova ranks 1^st in the Big East and Marquette ranks 2^nd.  Marquette does have a slight advantage here as Villanova ranks 11^th in terms of fouling defensively - so as with many Villanova games this year expect to hear the whistle a lot.

            The final piece of this matchup puzzle left to explore is 3 point shooting.  For all of Marquette’s offensive ability, the suck from 3, but they also don’t take a lot of 3 point shots.  They rank 13^th in terms of 3 point FG% at 28.7%, but as I mentioned they rank only 10^th in terms of attempts – taking only 29% of their shots from deep.  But for Villanova, WE suck at 3 point defense.  Opponents shoot 35.7% against us from 3 during conference play, and we are middle of the road in terms of the number of attempts we surrender, ranking 13^th in % and 7^th in yielding attempts.   However, we do have an advantage on offense where we rank 5^th and 4^th in terms of 3 point FG% and % of 3 point shots taken.  While Marquette is equally sucky as we are at 3 point defense.  They allow 33% shooting from deep, 12^th in the conference, and allow opponents to take over 37% of their shots from 3, 14^th in the conference.  I am not sure how the slight advantages will play our, nor am I sure whose best attribute – defense for us and offense for Marquette – will prevail.  But seeing how it all shakes out will be entertaining and interesting.

            In the end, I am all parts excited and nervous for this game.  With a win our path to the tourney is fairly straightforward – beat Seton Hall and 1 Big East tournament win gets us 20 wins, a 10-8 Big East regular season record, and 3 wins against top 25 teams.  A loss and the road becomes very dark with pouring rain.  But so far this season the ride has been fun, and with an intriguing matchup ahead against my favorite Big East opponent; I’m going to enjoy Saturday.