The Best Game of the Year

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Maybe it is because I’m from the mid-west and because I applied to Marquette.  Maybe it is because Marquette is both very similar to us in terms of style and also in record, year after year.  Maybe it is because every game is always close.  Or maybe it is because the first Villanova game I ever attended was against Marquette AT Madison Square Garden.  A game in which Jason Fraser teased us with what could have been with a 13 point, 13 rebound, 2 block effort – it was also his first ever collegiate game.  And a game in which Dwyane Wade glided all over the court effortlessly in route to a 17 point, 5 rebound, 4 assist, 2 steal, and 1 block game himself, which is the most Dwayne Wade stat line ever.  In any event, the Marquette game is the one game I always look forward to.  So much so that when I have been asked over the past two weeks who Villanova’s next opponent is, my response has been “I think it’s Marquette.”  Even though I have been wrong about who we were going to play for the past 3 games.

            This year the game should not only be fun to watch, but its importance is abundantly clear.  As we sit just inside the bubble for now – Lunardi has us as one of the last four teams IN the tourney at the moment - a winnable game at home against a very good opponent is about as loaded with significance and meaning as a game can have.

            Taking a step back however, this game provides us with an opportunity to analyze an interesting philosophical basketball question.  What happens and who wins when one team is really great at stopping what the other team is outstanding at executing?  Basically it’s a situation where an unstoppable force meets an immovable object.

            While our offense continues to show signs of improvement, it should be no secret that our defense has carried us to our 8-6 record in Big East play, where we are tied for 7^th with Pitt and St. John’s.  Overall we have the 3^rd best defensive efficiency in the conference, and the key to our defensive improvement has been our 2 point FG% defense & our defensive rebounding.  In those categories we rank 1^st and 2^nd respectively in the Big East.  Hello unmovable object.

            On the flip side, Marquette comes in with a 10-3 record in the Big East, tied for 1^st in the conference alongside G’Town and Syracuse.  They have gotten to this point by having the 14^th best offense in the country and the 2^nd best offense in Big East play.  And wouldn’t you know it, but the reason for Marquette’s success on offense has been due to their Big East BEST 2 point FG% shooting and the 3^rd best Big East offensive rebounding.  Good afternoon, unstoppable force.

            Adding to the intrigue is that in other important categories neither team seems capable of exploiting the other’s weaknesses.  Take turnovers for example.  Villanova ranks 14^th offensively – meaning we cough the ball up a lot – but Marquette only ranks 10^th defensively at forcing turnovers.  Both teams also excel at getting to the line on offense as Villanova ranks 1^st in the Big East and Marquette ranks 2^nd.  Marquette does have a slight advantage here as Villanova ranks 11^th in terms of fouling defensively - so as with many Villanova games this year expect to hear the whistle a lot.

            The final piece of this matchup puzzle left to explore is 3 point shooting.  For all of Marquette’s offensive ability, the suck from 3, but they also don’t take a lot of 3 point shots.  They rank 13^th in terms of 3 point FG% at 28.7%, but as I mentioned they rank only 10^th in terms of attempts – taking only 29% of their shots from deep.  But for Villanova, WE suck at 3 point defense.  Opponents shoot 35.7% against us from 3 during conference play, and we are middle of the road in terms of the number of attempts we surrender, ranking 13^th in % and 7^th in yielding attempts.   However, we do have an advantage on offense where we rank 5^th and 4^th in terms of 3 point FG% and % of 3 point shots taken.  While Marquette is equally sucky as we are at 3 point defense.  They allow 33% shooting from deep, 12^th in the conference, and allow opponents to take over 37% of their shots from 3, 14^th in the conference.  I am not sure how the slight advantages will play our, nor am I sure whose best attribute – defense for us and offense for Marquette – will prevail.  But seeing how it all shakes out will be entertaining and interesting.

            In the end, I am all parts excited and nervous for this game.  With a win our path to the tourney is fairly straightforward – beat Seton Hall and 1 Big East tournament win gets us 20 wins, a 10-8 Big East regular season record, and 3 wins against top 25 teams.  A loss and the road becomes very dark with pouring rain.  But so far this season the ride has been fun, and with an intriguing matchup ahead against my favorite Big East opponent; I’m going to enjoy Saturday.

How Does Your Back Feel Defense?

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What if I asked you the question, “Is Jay an offensive coach or a defensive coach?”  What would you say?  How would you respond?  Frankly, I can’t say I have even thought about this before.  I think most people would say however, that Jay is an offensive coach who prefers a guard dominant offense paired with athletic (by this I really mean undersized, but athletic is a nicer way to put it) bigs who develop effective 15 foot jump shots.  Note: no one ever says, “Nova usually has a pretty damn good defense.”  In reality though, our defense has usually been equal to our offense.  Since 2003 (10 seasons) we have had exactly 5 years when our offense had a better ranking than our defense, and exactly 5 years when we have had our defense better ranked than our offense. (Per kenpom’s adjusted points per possession)

            In 2013, the answer is clear.  We have a borderline, almost there, but not quite, elite defense.  And we are getting better, which is the crazy part.  Here is a breakdown of our defensive 4 factors for the season and for the 11 Big East games so far.

	Season	BE
eFG%	46.0%	43.6%
TO%	20.5%	18.8%
OR%	28.8%	28.6%
FTA/FGA	43.3	43.3

With the exception of forcing turnovers (TO%) our numbers have either stayed exactly the same or have improved, despite the fact that it has been against a drastically superior competition.  Not included in this little breakdown is the fact that we are holding our opponents to only 40.0% shooting from 2 during BE play.  If that was our number for the entire season we would rank 5^th in the country in 2pt. FG% defense.  Awesome.  And our current national rank for OR% is 59^th.  Not too shabby and overall we have the 35^th best defense in the country.

            The reason I considered us only borderline elite, is that our TO% and our FTrate’s are pretty bad as we rank 12^th and 13^th out of 15 conference teams respectively.  While these numbers definitely have room for improvement, (and hopefully they will as we gain more experience) the core defensive basics of rebounding and contesting shots are excellent.

            While we have improved on both sides of the ball during Big East play, our offense is not nearly as consistent as our defense has been.  And in looking ahead and thinking about the likelihood that we make the tournament or not, our offense needs to pick up the slack.  Here is how both our offense and defense has fared, broken down in wins and losses during Big East play.

	OFF			DEF
	Win	Loss		Win	Loss
eFG%	54.5%	38.9%		43.5%	42.7%
TO%	21.0%	27.0%		18.1%	21.1%
OR%	33.0%	30.5%		25.2%	33.3%
FTA/FGA	53.1	46.6		38.7	51.7

3FGA%

37.0%

33.9%

32.0%

29.9%

           

As you can see, our defense is almost the same during wins as it is during losses, while our offense is simply awful in our losses.  The turnover issue has been a problem for us all season and again it stands out in this breakdown.  2 things.  First, the problem is not going to go away.  We have really only 2 point guards, and one plays rather sparingly while the other is only a Freshmen.  But more importantly, I don’t think they are the reason why our offense struggles.  I believe they are a result of guys not playing within themselves and trying to make a play when the ball is bouncing the other way.    

            We are not the strongest shooting team.  We have only 1 player who hits better than 40% from 3 (Yacoubou) and both of our 2 big men shoot less than 50% (Yarou & Ochefu).  As a result, when games start to get away from us and when our shots are not falling our guards try to force the issue.  Look at the decline in 3 point attempts between wins and losses.  I think the fact that we take less 3’s when we are losing is a result of us ‘putting our heads down’ and forcing drives into the paint.

            In fact both Hilliard and Arcidiacono are guilty of this, as they attempt 7.2% and 9.3% less 3 point attempts in losses while both players also take more % of the team’s shots during losses than they do during wins – Hilliard in particular goes from taking 22% of shots during wins to 28% of shots during losses.

            I do not believe that either of these players are the reason why we have lost the games we have.  It is absolutely a team effort, as we only have one player playing significant minutes who actually shoots better during losses than during wins, JVP.

            Looking ahead to tonight and to our remaining games, its pretty clear that our defense is going to be there.  It will keep us in games, and it may even straight up win some games for us.  With 7 games left – 4 of which are away – and needing 4 wins to be better than .500 in conference play (which I believe we need in order to make the tourney), our offense needs to be more consistent.  As a young team, and a team that has so far shown great grit and exceeded expectations, the want to is there.  Now we just have to put it all together.