Monday, December 31, 2012

Mid-Season Player Rankings


Photo: Mark Jones
It’s been a pretty damn exciting season so far, has it not?  We have had the Big East fold, we suffered our worst lost in the history of the Jay Wright era, and we are no long guard u (although next year when we have Ennis join us we will again have 3 capable point guards).  Yet it seems that most people I talk to are semi-optimistic about this year’s team.  Either there really is something to look forward to, or we really did hate last year’s team way more than I thought was even possible.  Even though it’s a little of column A and a little of column B, let’s stick to the former and keep this positive.

A review of the team stats so far leads me to the following conclusion: our optimism lies in the improvement we have seen in individual players because at the team level we still have a lot of work to do (I’ll tackle the team mid-season review later this week).  In honor of the countdown that will happen tonight for New Years, I am going to rank and countdown the best Nova players so far this season.  My parameters for the rankings are based on a combination performance to date, pre-season expectations, and my personal preference.  If I were to rank, oh let’s say, Yacoubou above Arcidiacono it does not mean I think Yacoubou is an overall better player, nor do I want them to swap minutes.  I just think Yacoubou has had a more impressive season so far.   I’m also throwing in Jay into the mix since that will get us to 10 spots.  Here it goes.

10. Mouphtaou Yarou – You know I think that is the first time I have ever written his first name all the way through.  Anyways, to say that Yarou’s season has been disappointing is probably the understatement of the season so far.  It’s not as if we/I had huge hopes for him, it’s just that I didn’t think he would be THIS bad.  Here is all you need to know about Villanova big men and about Yarou in one nice simple graph.

Free throw percentage rises while FG percentage drops as he turns into a jump shooter instead of staying down low.  This would be somewhat tolerable if it wasn’t for the fact that his TO% and rebounding numbers all are pointing in the wrong direction, and to clarify the graph Yarou is shooting 42.5% from 2 this year.

9. Tony Chennault The hope was for Chennault to come in and be able to help out with the point guard duties.  While he has shown that he is a somewhat able passer, posting the 2nd best Assist rate on the team of 19.9, he has been a miserable shooter.  Although he is shooting a respectable 78% from the stripe and 42% from 3 (on only 14 attempts), he is shooting 33.3% from 2, yuck.  He is also leading the team in TO% at 26.1, which is not what you want from a distributor/creator.  On the bright side he is one of our most athletic players, and if he can shoot a less pathetic percent from 2, say 40-43% then this story is different.

8. Darrun Hilliard – I’m just going to put it out there.  I don’t really like Hilliard’s game.  I mean, what is his game?  He seems incapable of making a decent pass and is currently posting an Assist rate of only 9 – that puts him behind Arcidiacono, Chennault, JVP, Bell, & Sutton.  In other words not very good considering he is usually the second ball handler on the floor.  He is shooting a terrible 39% from 2 and only 66% from the line.  Sure his TO% is the best on the team, but when you aren’t looking to create, having a low TO% amounts to simply not doing a whole lot.  With all that being said, we need Hilliard to score and help us on offense, I just wish he was a little better at doing it.

7. Daniel Ochefu – I’m not sure what we should have expected from Ochefu.  I don’t think he has really underperformed; so much as he hasn’t really stood out, to me at least.  He currently leads the team in OR% and has a respectable DR%.  Defensively, his Blk% should be higher than 5.7% but it’s not too bad either and he ends up getting a lot of steals for a big guy.  He is besting Kennedy’s all-time awful free throw shooting by freshman bigs last year by shooting 43% from the stripe, but then again almost anyone can do better than Kennedy’s 1-16 – that is NOT a typo.  I’m just not sure at this point why he is getting more minutes than Sutton, except for the fact that Sutton will be gone next year and he is only a freshman.

6. Jay Wright – Two weeks ago, I probably would have ranked Jay 25th on this list.  I had a long back and forth with a couple of friends and most of us agreed: it was probably time for Jay to leave, maybe.  I know the thought is crazy, but with the underperforming and the terrible loss to Columbia I was actually agreeing with them.  Two weeks later and Jay is showing his coaching chops.  He has tinkered with the lineups and rotations, and it seems as if most players are showing signs of improvement.  However, I feel as if time is slowly running out for Jay, and if we fade miserably in the second half this season and produce a mere 500 level campaign next year, he has to be out right?  Luckily, he has done enough recently to quell the uprising for now.

5. Ryan Arcidiacono – Arcidiacono is hard to rank for the following reasons: a) he is a freshmen b) can you imagine where we would be without him? c) he really hasn’t played THAT well d) I have some pretty serious doubts about his ceiling.  The good: he is our best ball handler and has the best Assist rate on the team at 24.3.  He is making 31.8% of his 3’s (a number that should improve this year and the following) and he knows how to get to the line where he is shooting 81% - best on the team.  Crazy stat: he has almost double the number of free throw attempts as he has 2 point attempts: 58 FTA – 30 2FGA.  The bad: he might be the most unathletic player we have ever had. His lack of athleticism not only hurts us defensively – as he can’t stay in front of his man – but it also hurts us offensively as he can’t beat his guy off the dribble to create his own shot.  Hopefully, he gets quicker as he works on his legs in the off season, and maybe with the addition of another point guard he can move over to the 2, where he would be more effective.

4. Achraf Yacoubou – You know how I said I don’t like Hilliard?  Well, Yacoubou is the exact opposite of that.  I love him.  Every time he enters, the game gets more exciting and when he leaves we look slower and less athletic.  He has the second best steal% on our team, but at 6-4 he is our second best defensive rebounder grabbing a whopping 18.6% of defensive rebounds while he is on the court, Sutton at 24.2% is the only player who is doing that better.  Throw in the fact that he is shooting better than 36% from 3, and it’s easy to see that he has been a tremendous impact player off the bench.  We need more Yacoubou.  Say it with me Yahh-cooo-booo.

3. James Bell – Bell was a hard guy for me to place on this list.  He is not a very good offensive rebounder at all and is an average defensive rebounder for a player of his size.  His Assist rate is decent, but I can’t get the pictures out of my head where he puts his head and down, tries to beat his guy off the dribble, only to put up a ridiculously contested shot after working way too hard to get there.  That being said the guy is clearly our best one on one defender and does a little bit of everything for us on offense.  He is posting the 2nd best eFG% at 54.1 – just slightly behind Sutton, and he is our best 3 point shooter.  Was anyone surprised when he hit that shot at the end of the St. Joe’s game? No.

2. Mo Sutton – We also need more Mo.  I just don’t understand why Sutton has never gotten more playing time.  I mean, what else does the guy have to do?  He has the best 2 point FG% on the team, the best defensive rebounding percentage, the 2nd best offensive rebounding percentage, and he has an assist rate that is BETTER than Hilliard’s.  Here is my favorite stat though, if Sutton gets more playing time he would be eligible for kenpom’s Blk% ratings.  He would rank 10th in the ENTIRE country at 14.8%!  Next on our team is Ochefu at 5.7%.

1. JVP - If you want to point to one single player that has not only improved drastically but who is also the reason we are a) playing well at the moment and b) gives us great reason to be optimistic, I give you JVP.  He has improved his offensive rebounding, his steal%, his free throw shooting and attempts, & he has raised his 2 pt. shooting% by over 7 percentage points.  But the biggest improvement is in his assist numbers and in his turnovers.  Last season he assisted on only 8.8% of his teammates baskets when he was on the floor, while he turned it over on 25.2% of the possessions he used.  This season he is assisting on 18.7% (3rd on the team and only a hair behind Chennault) of his teammates baskets while only turning it over on 19% of the possessions he is using.  Both of those numbers are remarkable for a 6-6 guy playing power forward, who takes the MOST shots on our team!

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