The Construction of a Winner

[riot and frolic]

This season has been pretty damn good so far hasn’t?  It’s not even the end of December, and after being picked virtually unanimously to finish 4^th in the New Big East, Villanova has beaten a top 10 team, won a pre-season tournament, jumped to 8^th in the AP poll, and beat the pants off of our Big 5 rivals thus far by an average of 24.6 points per game.  What stands out though isn’t the accolades or the wins, but the type of team that we are and the way we play.  Villanova is a team in the traditional sense of the word, where everyone plays hard, the stars stand out, and the role players play their part to a T.  But the thing I can’t stop thinking about is the way in which this particular team and these particular players fit perfectly together; the way in which this team came to fruition.  Throw in the uncertainty and problems of the last couple of years, and this my friends, is one of the most overlooked storylines of the season.  So allow me to eschew my normal amateur statistical ramblings, and with all apologies to Dana O’Neil, this is my story of how Jay constructed a winner.

The best place I can think of to start this little story, and put everything in context, is sometime in the fall of 2009.  Villanova and Jay Wright finally made a Final 4, and all was good in the world.  Jay had snagged arguably his most talented recruiting class ever – ranked 3^rd nationally with Yarou, Cheek, Wayns, & Armwood - and with Scottie and the two Corey’s still around, plus the addition of Duke transfer and McDonald’s All-American Taylor King, anything seemed possible.

So things aren’t just good they are great at the beginning of 2010.  In case you forgot, Villanova started out 20-1, with our only loss coming to Temple at Temple.  Then the Big East schedule got a little tougher, we dropped a couple of games, lost in the first round of the Big East Tourney, and held on just enough to earn a 2-seed.  Now we will never know what happened between Fisher and Scottie before the first tournament game that year, but both were benched to start it. (We do know that the stupid story that went around was bullshit, but in case you are inclined to believe it, do you also remember the one last year about Jay and the cheerleader?  Yeah, both are a crock)  We barely beat Robert Morris in OT, and then lost to Saint Mary’s in the second round.

It’s difficult, and generally a fool’s errand, to look back and pin point the exact moment when things started to go south, but this was the first sign that all was not well at Villanova.  In the subsequent off-season Taylor King was kicked off the team and left the school.  Additionally, the two incoming recruits didn’t even make it to next season’s opening tip unscathed.  James Bell had surgery on both of his legs and played sparingly throughout the 2011 season, while JVP got caught up in an unfortunate off campus incident that got him suspended.  On the court, the season started well enough (16-1) before Villanova dropped six of their last eight games, lost to lowly USF in the BE tourney, and finally were put out of our misery by George Mason in the first round of the NCAA.  Down the stretch there was no spark and no chemistry, and the careers of Stokes, Fisher, and Pena ended without too much of a fight.

While there were a handful of small seemingly innocuous and unrelated incidents, no one really seemed too worried about the future of the program yet.  Mostly because the best recruiting class in the school’s history was about to take the reigns as Wayns, Cheek, Yarou and Armwood were rising Juniors.  Bell, who was largely a footnote, was finally healthy, and JVP was about to play his first ever game for Villanova.  Also, Jay had landed another supposedly decent recruiting class in Ty Johnson, Marcus Kennedy, and Darrun Hilliard. 

But then right before the season started Armwood decided he wanted to transfer.  In case you forgot, he was our goddamn captain!   What the hell is going on here?  Even when it happened it didn’t seem too terrible, as most people were expecting Armwood to at best be the third banana behind Wayns and Cheek.  But after the total and complete disaster of the 2012 season, Armwood’s transfer as the team’s captain stands out as the moment everyone should have realized that something was clearly screwed up.

Here is Jay talking about Armwood when he transferred:

"He’s the greatest kid in the world," Wright gushed. "He’s our hardest-working guy, our captain. We started him every game on our trip. I love him to death…I just want to see him achieve his goals”

The hard part comes when trying to explain what exactly was screwed up, what was the problem.  I don’t think there is a real answer to this, and as outsiders we will never know.  Hell, I don’t even think Jay really knows what exactly it was that caused such internal turmoil and for many talented players to not live up to expectations the last couple of years.  I think he has his theories, however, and I think it changed they way he recruited, the way he coached, and the way in which he went about constructing a team.

The reason I feel that this situation changed Jay as strongly as I do, even though to remind you I know nothing, is what happened next.  By mid-June after the end of the season that shall never be talked about again, 4 underclassmen decided to leave the team.  I repeat 4 underclassmen – Wayns, Cheek, Johnson, and Kennedy.  That’s more players departing then when new coaches come on board.

I am pretty sure the message was crystal clear.  Anyone who doesn’t want to play defense, anyone who doesn’t want to work their ass off, anyone who doesn’t want to be a team player, and anyone who doesn’t want to play when and how I tell them to should leave right now because I will bench your ass.

After the alleged ultimatum by Jay here is who was left: Yarou, Sutton, JVP, Bell and Hilliard.  That’s it, and after Yarou and Sutton graduated, the guys who accepted Jay’s coaching and attitude are the current stars of the team – JVP, Bell, and Hilliard.

So with that core group of players to build around Jay needed to fill in the surrounding pieces.  With a 2-guard, a small forward, and a power forward on board, Jay went out and recruited a point guard in Arcidiacono and a center in Ochefu.  Players that are smart and tough.

But filling out the bench with players who have those same qualities and willing to accept their roles has been the biggest reason for Villanova’s ultimate success.  Chennault has accepted his role as facilitator beautifully this year after transferring to Villanova a year ago and struggling offensively.  Ennis had to sit out a year while he transferred and he provides good defense and badly needed outside shooting.

The two incoming Freshmen this year have fit in perfectly as well.  Jenkins is an undersized big in the Villanova tradition like Cunningham, Pena, and JVP before him.  And Hart who dealt with a fairly severe injury his Junior year of High School, but who Jay and Villanova continued to recruit due to him 'fitting' our team, has been nothing short of awesome.  Playing defense and unselfish basketball while and adding some much needed raw athleticism.

And that brings us to where Villanova basketball is today.  After a couple of down years with chemistry issues and players never fully blossoming, Jay has put together the pieces for a complete team 1 through 9.  A team built on defense, chemistry, and toughness with enough talent and offensive firepower to make a deep NCAA tournament run.  And from the fan's perspective, damn fun to watch.

Come Get Some: A Handful of Notes, Observations, & Numbers

[keepcalm-o-matic.co.uk]

What a big time win last night.  Even though we didn’t face the finished product in Kansas, we still played a really, really good version.  This win should put us under the spotlight now, and if we want to get recognition nationally we have to follow up with a win or a strong showing against Iowa tonight.  Iowa, while not getting the national recognition itself, has quietly put together a great start and is a very good basketball team – ranked 7^th per kenpom, where we are ranked 19^th.  But let’s talk about last night.

• On the night, we held Kansas overall to .89 points per possession.  For the season Kansas’ adjusted ppp is 115.7.

• While turnovers and pressure were keys to Villanova’s first half lead, the biggest story was on the defensive glass.  Kansas missed 19 shots but only collected 2 offensive rebounds.  That’s an OR% of 10.5%, and Kansas on the season has been collecting over 30% of its missed shots.

• After we battled and arguably dominated down low all game against a front line that features a 7 footer and two first round picks in the upcoming NBA draft (Embiid and Ellis), I don’t want to hear any announcer talk about us being thin or small up front anymore.

• Bell, Hilliard, and JVP were the MVP’s last night.  In the first half Hilliard was great, but he seemed fatigued in the second half.  Bell and JVP struggled offensively a little bit, but they kept fighting and were both tough as hell on the defensive side of the ball.  Numbers aside it was the effort, confidence, and determination from all three of them that kept us in this game.

•  Our bench was also awesome last night. 

o   Ennis continued to show that he can provide the necessary offensive spark for us, and especially some necessary outside shooting, as he went 4-5 from the field, 3-3 from deep, with 2 assists, 4 rebounds, a block, and only 1 turnover in 20 minutes.

o   Chennault added hustle and the ability to create shots for others in his limited minutes, chipping in 2 assists, 3 rebounds, and 2 steals in only 10 minutes of action.

o   Hart was strong defensively and added in 2 threes and 6 rebounds in a little over 20 minutes.

o   Jenkins might not look terribly big, but he played really well down low in limited minutes showing that in a pinch he can help out up front if Ochefu gets in foul trouble again.

• Ochefu continues to struggle.  After I pointed out that he had a rather low fouls committed per 40 minute number as a Freshman, he has fouled at an alarming rate.  For the season he is now fouling 7.5 times per 40 minutes, up from his 4.8 number a year ago.  He bites on almost every pump fake and goes for the block on every shot.  Offensively, he is quickly becoming a liability.  He needs to understand that the reason teams are not guarding him, and the reason they are forcing him to make plays offensively is because he just isn’t very good on that side of the ball.  He has taken 18.9% of the teams shots while he is on the floor, way too high for a poor offensive player, but the worst part is that he is turning the ball over on 34.9% of his total possessions.  That has to stop.

•  Arcidiacono came up big when it counted, but otherwise struggled.  He was 0-5 from the field before he took and made the final 3 to win the game.  Of those 5 attempts prior to the final shot, he did not have a single attempt from 2.  I continue to believe that against the better and in particular more athletic teams, Arcidiacono needs to play off the ball more.  He is simply not quick enough to get around his man or a high ball screen to penetrate and initiate the offense.  Hopefully with Ennis now getting playing time can share that role with Hilliard come crunch time.  But Arcidiacono is tough as nails, and his confidence in his ability is why he is actually playing at this level, and he showed it last night.

Early Results and the Battle 4 Atlantis Thanksgiving Tournament

Depending on your families’ preference for timing of Thanksgiving dinner, Villanova’s 1:00pm EST game against USC in the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament will most likely start your 8 hours of eating and watching TV on Thanksgiving.  That makes me happy, especially because do to prior obligations I have watched way too little of any  Villanova game so far this season.  It really is a shame.  But Thursday is just the appetizer to the main dish served on Friday at 9:30pm EST, a likely match-up against Kansas and Andrew Wiggins, the Maple Jordan.

Again that match-up only comes to fruition if we beat USC, which in all likelihood should happen.  No matter what happens however, we will play 3 games, and with the exception of Kansas we should be favored in the other two matchups.

With four games down against shitty competition, there are some interesting early season trends and numbers that I am interested in seeing how they shake out when the competition over these next 3 games improves.  So let’s dig in.

Is Ochefu really this bad offensively?

Through the first four games as a team, Villanova is shooting 60.6% from 2.  Currently that ranks 7^th in the country, and is largely do to the fact that we haven’t played anybody.  Despite being the tallest player on the court in 3 of our 4 games so far Mr. Ochefu is shooting just 28.6%.  According to hoop-math.com, an absolutely fantastic database, Ochefu hasn’t hit a jump shot yet this season and is only shooting 37.2% on shots at the rim, which overall the team is making 65.7% of and the D1 average is 60.0%.

Look, Ochefu is in there to challenge and block shots and rebound, but we need him to be able to score a little bit.  While this is just a sample size of four games, the numbers are pretty incredible, and I am interested in seeing how he moves forward.

3 Point Shooting

I talked about both offensive and defensive 3-point shooting in the season preview, and well, the early results are not too pretty.  As a team we are shooting 25.5% from 3 so far.  Bell and Hilliard are almost exactly at their averages last year, 36% and 32% respectively, but Arcidiacono has made only 3 of his 19 attempts thus far.  JVP, who really knows better than to take a lot of threes, is only 1 of 11 to start.  Arcidiacono is the key as last year he attempted the most threes – I will get to his struggles in a minute – but we need to shoot better than 25.5% if we are going anywhere this year.

Defensively, our opponents are shooting at an average rate of 34% from 3, but we are once again conceding way too many 3 point attempts.  Opponents are taking a whopping 41.1% of their shots from 3 this year, good for 331^st in the country.  Maybe this is a result of them being down for long stretches of the game, and so they are jacking more threes to get back in it.  Let’s see what happens in closer games against better teams.

James Bell is killing it

 Bell has been on fire so far.  I neglected Bell in the season preview because over the last two seasons his numbers were almost identical, which made it hard for me to believe and or predict that Bell’s impact would change.  In the four games this year Bell’s %shots while he is on the floor has jumped significantly.  In 2012 he took 18.2% of Villanova’s shots.  In 2013 that number rose slightly to 19.7% of our shots, 4^th on the team.  But in 2014 thus far that number is 29.5% and just a tick below JVP’s team leading 29.6%.

The difference it seems is that Bell is taking a lot more shots at the rim to go along with his 3 point shooting.  In his previous 3 seasons Bell has never taken more than 20% of his shot attempts at the rim, but this year that number has jumped up to 32.1%.  It seems as if Bell’s off the dribble game has improved, and that is likely the reason for his increased shot attempts from close range.  Again let’s see what happens against a good team first.

 Struggling Arcidiacono is adjusting to a new role

Two years ago when Wayns decided to get paid and Ty Johnson was absolutely awful in his one season and decided to transfer, Jay knew he was in trouble at the point guard spot.  Arcidiacono was already coming to the Main Line, but we had no one else.  That’s when Jay brought on board the two transfers in Ennis and Chennault.  If you read between the lines in the quotes from Jay in the Chennault piece about hardship transfers, it’s pretty clear that Chennault was only really intended to be a stop gap backup for one season.  Ennis was the guy Jay had in mind to run the point alongside Arcidiacono, and that’s why Chennault almost transferred this season.

Moving along to this season, here is a nice quote from Arcidiacono on media day before the season started:

“It really doesn't matter who brings the ball up, because someone is going to have to get us into the offense... It could be Dylan, it could be Taj [Bell]. There's no point guard, shooting guard”

Allow me to translate.  We are going to play more ball handlers at once, and Arcidiacono is going to more or less play like a shooting guard.  This is essentially what happened with both Scottie and Nardi in years past, ball handler in the early years and more of a scorer in the later years.

With Ennis hurt – his cast is off by the way and he is likely to get a tiny, tiny bit of playing time in the tournament – Hilliard and Chennault have assumed his role as main ball handler while Arcidiacono is adjusting to playing more off the ball.  That change is seen in the fact that his ARate of 23.6 from a year ago is way down to only 13.4 this year.  Conversely Chennault and Hilliard’s have increased a lot.

It’s not easy for a guy who has played his entire life with the ball in his hands on every possession to suddenly have to give it up so someone else runs the show.  In the long run this will help our team as Arcidiacono is a very capable second ball handler, but it will take time for him to adjust.  I think he will bounce back nicely in this tournament and he will continue to improve throughout the year.